Shihezi, Changji, Kuitun and southern Xinjiang cotton processing enterprises have reported that the harvest progress of machine-picked cotton in northern Xinjiang has exceeded 75% (some cotton fields have begun to resume harvesting), and the seed cotton delivery progress is not less than 60%. The harvest progress of hand-picked cotton and machine-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang is expected to reach more than 70% and 30% respectively. Therefore, the accuracy of Xinjiang cotton production estimates in 2021/22 is getting higher and higher.
In what aspects will the decline in Xinjiang’s cotton production in 2021 be manifested? The opinions in the industry focus on the following three points:
First of all, the error between the measured production of machine-picked cotton and the actual harvested from August to September is too large (egg roll cotton, module cotton harvested easy to estimate). For example, the actual harvest of cotton fields with an estimated yield of 400-450 kg/mu in the early stage may only be 350-380 kg/mu. There are very few plots with an actual yield of more than 400 kg/mu. Some cotton-related companies and cotton growers believe that Xinjiang cotton will be harvested this year. The yield drop of 30-50 kilograms is relatively objective.
Secondly, there is a high probability that the clothing score of hand-picked cotton or machine-picked cotton will drop by 1-1.5% in 2021/22. For example, ginners in Aksu, Kashgar and other places generally report that the clothing content of hand-picked cotton this year is concentrated at 40-42%, and the proportion of cotton with high clothing content of 43% and above has dropped significantly compared with previous years. The clothing score of machine-picked cotton in Xinjiang is concentrated at 38%-40%, and 41% and above is considered a high clothing score. Judging from the public inspection data, the proportion of Xinjiang’s “Double 29 and Double 30” indicator cotton in 2021/22 is significantly higher than the same period in the previous year.
Finally, the overall impurity content of machine-picked cotton this year has dropped compared with the previous two years, resulting in a corresponding decline in lint production. Judging from the survey, the time for spraying defoliants in northern Xinjiang in 2021/22 is quite different, causing the impurity content of lint to increase from 1.5% to 6.5%; the overall impurity content of machine-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang is relatively low, with some in Kashgar, Aksu and Korla The impurity content rate of lint in the ginner even reached below 2%, which was significantly lower than the previous two years. </p
