Restricted production shutdowns in the textile and chemical fiber industry are still spreading recently. At present, the market is highly consistent in its expectations for normalized control of textile factories in the future. However, there are contradictions and doubts in the pace and rhythm of market operation. Uncertain factors are mainly concentrated on the intensity of upstream and downstream control. .
Crude oil has risen for 9 consecutive weeks, polyester prices remain high
Travel restrictions are relaxed, U.S. crude oil Due to the slow recovery in production and expectations of increased energy demand in winter, international oil prices rose again, with WTI achieving the longest weekly rise in history for nine consecutive weeks. On Friday (October 22), the settlement price of December 2021 West Texas Light Oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was US$83.76 per barrel, an increase of US$1.26, or 1.5%, from the previous trading day, with a trading range of US$81.76-84.22; London The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in December 2021 on the Intercontinental Exchange was US$85.53 per barrel, an increase of US$0.92, or 1.1%, from the previous trading day, with a trading range of US$83.82-85.93.
The rise in natural gas prices triggered market concerns about energy shortages in winter. Some power plants used oil to replace natural gas and coal for power generation. WTI had a net increase for nine consecutive weeks, the highest level for the New York commodity in April 1983. The exchange marked the longest weekly gain since WTI futures trading.
In the new week, the quotations of mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are temporarily stable, among which the mainstream quotations of polyester FDY150D are at 9,200 yuan/ tons, the mainstream quotation of polyester DTY150D) is 10,800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation of polyester POY150D is 9,075 yuan/ton, both of which have exceeded the highest value at the beginning of the year. At the same time, the profits of polyester filament have gradually increased, with FDY profits reaching 945.7 yuan/ton, POY profits reaching 1220.7 yuan/ton, and DTY profits reaching 1245.7 yuan/ton.
Polyester device dynamics
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1. A polyester manufacturer in Nantong began to shut down a 200,000 tons/year optical FDY device today, and its restart is pending.
2. New installation situation:
The remaining new installation situation under power restrictions in 2021
According to the original plan, there are still many new polyester plants expected to be put into production. Ruxin Fengming has a new plant of 900,000 tons/year planned to be put into operation. Tongkun and Hengyi have new plants of 600,000 tons/year and 300,000 tons/year respectively planned to be put into operation. Overlaying some small and medium-sized polyester factories such as Huabao and Yuan Long et al. However, under the double-limit policy, the production start-up time is highly uncertain.
The shortage of natural gas continues to boost crude oil demand prospects, and international oil prices have risen again. However, polyester raw materials are still weak, and the cost trend is temporarily unclear. And after experiencing intensive replenishment in the early stage, there is usually a certain amount of raw material inventory in the downstream at this time, and under the influence of the dual control policy, the consumption of raw materials has slowed down, and it is expected that short-term market prices may continue to be stable. However, the international crude oil price is close to a high level, which has strong support for the market. We still need to be alert to the possibility of a new round of market prices for chemical fiber raw materials after a short period of consolidation. </p
