Yesterday, market pessimism continued to spread, with domestic futures market varieties falling more than rising. Among them, fuel oil fell by more than 5%, low fuel oil, PTA, etc. fell by more than 3%, and crude oil fell by more than 2%.
Affected by the external market and combined with domestic policies, energy commodities fell generally, and my country’s crude oil futures also experienced a certain degree of correction. Yesterday, crude oil plunged sharply at the opening in early trading, with a maximum drop of nearly 5%. It rebounded in the afternoon due to changes in market atmosphere. As of the afternoon closing, the main contract fell 2.67% to close at 517.5 yuan.
Judging from the performance of foreign oil prices, according to the latest media reports, Algeria’s “Notice” published a news article titled “International crude oil prices fell to the lowest level in two weeks” on the 28th. , at 5:02 GMT on the 28th, the price of British Brent crude oil futures fell 1.9% to US$83 per barrel, and the price of US West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 1.7% to US$81.27 per barrel. This is two weeks ago. lowest level to come. The report analyzed that the main reason for the decline in crude oil prices was that data showed a sudden increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and the rising trend of the new crown epidemic in Europe.
It is understood that since Tuesday this week, crude oil prices have fallen for two consecutive days after rising for nine consecutive weeks. Du Bingqin, an energy and chemical analyst at Everbright Futures, told a reporter from Futures Daily that the early strength of crude oil prices, especially WTI crude oil, was mainly due to pipeline adjustments that brought about a sharp decline in the inventory of WTI delivery place Cushing. The absolute value of its inventory has reached nearly 5 Year-on-year low.
Du Bingqin said that this week, Cushing area inventories continued to decline, with the largest decline since January this year. However, due to the decline in EIA and API crude oil inventories and refined oil inventories, The overall substantial increase has caused oil prices to fall back from their highs after rising for nine consecutive weeks.
It is reported that on Wednesday local time, the EU and Iran agreed to restart the 2015 Iranian nuclear negotiations before the end of November. Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator and Deputy Foreign Minister Bagheri said on social media that day: “We agreed to start negotiations before the end of November and will announce the specific date next week.”
“This There are new developments in the negotiations on the Iran-Iraq nuclear agreement in Zhou Dynasty. In the current context of OPEC+’s lack of willingness to increase production, the negotiations on the Iran-Iraq nuclear agreement have become one of the United States’ methods to suppress oil prices. If Iran’s crude oil production is released, it will bring negative consequences to the global oil supply next year. There’s a certain amount of pressure,” Du Bingqin said.
In the view of Yang Jiaming, a researcher at CITIC Futures, asphalt fuel, Brazil raised interest rates sharply this week, and the near-end of U.S. Treasury bonds continued to strengthen, raising expectations of tighter liquidity. In order to ease inflationary pressure, the United States , continues to pressure OPEC to increase production and speed up the pace of negotiations. It is expected that the probability of a nuclear deal being concluded between Iran and the EU in November is relatively high. In addition, as Russia increases natural gas supply to Europe, natural gas prices are expected to stabilize or fall. Then the increase in demand for replacement of gas with oil is expected to gradually decline. The support for prices from EIA crude oil inventory accumulation this week has also weakened.
Judging from the current fundamentals and monthly difference structure, Du Bingqin told reporters that global crude oil supply and demand are still in a strong state. On the supply side, after the current oil price rose to a high of over US$80/barrel, U.S. shale oil has been slow to increase production due to extremely strong capital expenditure discipline and the background of forward carbon neutrality; OPEC+ is currently increasing production less than expected and has momentum Maintaining high oil prices makes supply inelastic.
“In terms of demand, demand for gasoline and diesel has performed well recently, refinery profits have recovered significantly, and jet fuel consumption has also recovered, and has now recovered to about half of what it was before the epidemic; 4. The increase in replacement demand for crude oil brought about by the quarterly natural gas tightness is expected to be around 600,000 barrels per day. Therefore, for global crude oil inventories, the trend of destocking will still be maintained in the fourth quarter. In addition, we must continue to pay attention to the OPEC+ monthly meeting next month Is there any change in the production increase agreement?” Du Bingqin said. </p
