According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic polyester filament market in October showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and the prices of various products also hit nearly A new high in two years. As of October 29, the prices of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas were quoted at 8350-8600 yuan/ton for polyester POY (150D/48F), 10500-10800 yuan/ton for polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity), and 10500-10800 yuan/ton for polyester DTY. FDY (150D/96F) is quoted at 8750-8850 yuan/ton. The prices of various polyester filament products increased by about 2%. The operating load of polyester has not changed much, remaining at around 80%, without significant improvement. In terms of inventory, the current overall inventory in the polyester market is concentrated at 16-26 days, of which POY inventory is around 12-19 days, FDY inventory is around 15-17 days, and DTY inventory is around 17-25 days.
Crude oil prices hit a new high in the past seven years, cost support increased, and the highs fell slightly at the end of the month. As of October 28 On the same day, the settlement price of the main U.S. WTI crude oil futures contract was US$82.81/barrel, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was US$83.66/barrel. In October, the PTA market first rose and then fell. As of October 29, the average domestic market price was 5,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.6% from the beginning of the month and a year-on-year increase of 52.24%. Unplanned maintenance of some equipment in the factory has alleviated the pressure of oversupply. The current operating load of the industry is around 82%. However, the current PTA market supply is still sufficient, and the bids from downstream polyester factories are mostly due to hard demand, and the overall trading atmosphere is light. There are not many maintenance plans for PTA equipment in the future, and the demand side is generally weak, so it is expected that PTA will accumulate inventory.
At the beginning of the month, downstream companies had the mentality of “buying up but not buying down”. When their strength allowed, they stocked up a large amount of goods. Enter raw materials. As time goes by, the resistance of weaving manufacturers has heated up rapidly. Most of them have prepared raw materials and the prices of raw materials have weakened. They are not enthusiastic about purchasing them, and the wait-and-see atmosphere has intensified. The impact of power rationing still exists. For example, in Zhejiang, the orderly power consumption level has been adjusted from level C to level B since October 20, causing some factories that “open three times, stop four times” to “open four times, stop three times”, etc. However, The policy adjustment did not trigger a sharp increase in construction starts in the short term. There is great resistance to price increases due to new orders. There is no significant increase in terminal textile and apparel orders. Raw material stocks are sufficient and consumption is relatively slow. However, as Double Eleven and Christmas are approaching, there are still replenishment actions despite stable shipments. Jiangsu and Zhejiang Loom Comprehensive The startup rate increased to more than 65%.
From the perspective of the textile industry, the Business Society Textile Index, as of October 28, the textile index was 1,098 points, which was higher than that at the beginning of the month. 1007 points increased by 91 points, a decrease of 5.02% from the highest point in the cycle of 1156 points (2018-09-03), and an increase of 61.23% from the lowest point of 681 points on August 13, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to the present) In terms of exports, despite facing unfavorable factors such as soaring sea freight, production and electricity restrictions, and rising raw material prices, my country’s textile and apparel exports still maintain good growth momentum. According to recent data released by the General Administration of Customs, in U.S. dollar terms, textile and apparel exports ended four consecutive months of decline and resumed growth in September. Exports in that month increased by 2.66% year-on-year and 18.81% compared with the same period in 2019.
Business News analysts believe that the upward momentum for polyester filament yarn in October mainly comes from cost-end support and tight supply caused by production restrictions. However, as the cost side weakens, downstream weaving companies are showing resistance and are less willing to purchase, and more choose to purchase on demand. Although some manufacturers currently report an increase in demand for winter orders, some gray fabric factories have relatively limited profits, and some orders have even been missed, making it difficult for production enthusiasm to improve. Therefore, on the whole, negative factors are gradually emerging, and polyester filament prices are expected to fluctuate downward in November. </p
