From the “dual control” to after the National Day, the market was turbulent and the news was relatively active. Restrictions on production and electricity have had a greater impact on the textile industry. Following the high level of domestic nylon prices in September, strong support from the raw material side, power rationing and production cuts boosted the market, and inventory dropped sharply. Domestic nylon prices continued to heat up in October.
According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of October 29, the price of nylon filament DTY (high-quality product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu was 21,360 yuan/ton, an increase of about 600 yuan/ton from the end of last month. Reaching 2.74%; nylon POY (high-quality product; 86D/24F) is quoted at 19,100 yuan/ton, which is 775 yuan/ton compared to the price at the end of last month, an increase of 4.0%; nylon FDY (high-quality product: 40D/12F) is quoted at 22,925 yuan / ton, the price increased by 625 yuan / ton from the end of last month, an increase of 2.74%.
From the perspective of price trends, the domestic nylon market has continued to be high and rising since September. Prices continued to rise in mid-to-early October and stabilized in the second half of October. If the rise in domestic nylon prices in September was mainly affected by upstream raw materials, then the nylon market in October was supported by raw material prices that continued to remain high despite falling back, and most importantly by the power restriction and production reduction policy. Under the influence of the dual control policy, the nylon industry has not been spared. The start-up rate of nylon-related companies will be limited to a certain extent. Nylon manufacturers in Jiangsu continue to suspend production or partially suspend production, and inventories are further reduced.
Power restrictions lead to production cuts
In terms of power restrictions, it is not ruled out that the power restrictions will be extended to early next year. possible, and the impact on all walks of life may be deepened.
Back in September, the dual control seemed to start with the energy consumption barometer. The eight provinces that failed to meet the standards had a stricter policy style in terms of energy consumption control. Among them, Jiangsu, Production and power cuts in Zhejiang and other provinces have had a greater impact on the textile industry. At the beginning of the production restriction, downstream controlled yarn mills, etc., generally expected the production restriction to end in early October. Subsequently, news of coal shortages and coal-fired power outages extended the market’s expectations for the power restriction policy to a certain extent. In other words, in the last two months at the end of the year, the double-limit situation will become more severe, and the operating rate of chemical fiber companies will also face continued low conditions. The downturn caused by production line production restrictions and continued low operating rates is fatal to textile and chemical fiber companies. Under the surge in costs, textile and chemical fiber companies can only choose to increase prices to pass the pressure to downstream and “self-rescue”. Since October, nylon companies have not stopped raising prices. Some companies even remind customers to confirm the availability and stocking cycle before making purchases.
Although upstream raw materials have declined, they are still at high levels
In September, the upstream raw material environment of nylon The supply of hexanone is tight, and the market price continues to rise. In September, the domestic cyclohexanone market price rose sharply. According to SunSirs monitoring data, the average domestic market price of cyclohexanone at the beginning of the month was 10,720 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average domestic market price of cyclohexanone was 12,760 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.03% during the month and a year-on-year increase of 90.86%.
In October, according to SunSirs monitoring data, as of October 29, the average domestic market price of cyclohexanone was 11,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 780 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, but the price was still high. From October 18th to October 25th, the average domestic market price of cyclohexanone fell from 12,820 yuan/ton to 11,560 yuan/ton, a drop of 9.83% during the week. The price fell 10.25% month-on-month and increased 97.61% year-on-year. In October, after returning from the holiday, driven by the demand for the new production of cyclohexanone units, the raw material pure benzene market first rose, and the downstream solvents of cyclohexanone were actively purchased, which formed a short-term support for the cyclohexanone market. However, the downstream chemical fiber market is generally average, and the enthusiasm for purchasing high-priced cyclohexanone is significantly lower than before the National Day. Some cyclohexanone factories have high inventories, and they mainly sell goods for profit. At present, the mentality of domestic cyclohexanone traders is bearish, and the focus of cyclohexanone transactions has dropped. Although the cost support is obvious, cyclohexanone is in short-term oversupply. Cyclohexanone analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term cyclohexanone market will fluctuate within a narrow range.
Domestic nylon prices rose in September, mainly affected by upstream raw materials. PA6 is the main raw material for nylon civilian yarn. In September, PA6 was strongly driven up by the price of the upstream raw material caprolactam. As of September 29, the mainstream offer price of Zhongnian 2.75-2.85 by sample companies was around 17333.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.59% from the average price level at the beginning of the month, and a year-on-year increase of 66.13%.
According to SunSirs bulk list data, the domestic market trend of PA6 has declined recently, and the spot prices of various brands have dropped.Mainly callbacks. As of October 28, the mainstream offer price of Zhongnian 2.75-2.85 by sample companies was around 17533.33 yuan/ton, which was +1.15% higher than the average price level at the beginning of the month. Recently, caprolactam has provided stable support to the cost side of PA6, and the spot price of PA6 has fallen. Terminal demand has declined, and the centralized replenishment market has basically ended. The lackluster trading on the market affects business confidence. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 may still fall slightly in the short term.
Downstream market demand is not strong
On the demand side, With the arrival of the traditional peak season, demand in the downstream market has increased slightly. According to convention, the market trading atmosphere will pick up after the National Day, and downstream orders will be further released after the National Day. However, there are too many uncertainties in the market this year, such as double limits and other environmental protection issues. The policy affects the load of terminal enterprises, the situation of users receiving goods is not strong, and there is a wait-and-see atmosphere in the market.
Forecast of the market outlook
The current nylon market is affected by raw material prices Supported by the impact of power rationing and production cuts, nylon prices are running at high levels. As the traditional demand peak season has basically ended, and environmental policies such as double limits have affected the load of terminal enterprises, the situation of users receiving goods has declined. The deserted trading on the market has affected business confidence, and there is a wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. As the power restriction policy continues, the raw material side has declined. It is expected that the spot price of nylon will mainly operate at a high level and steadily in the short term. There is no expectation of an increase and may fall slightly.
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