October 2021 is coming to an end. Ordinary words such as big rises and big falls can no longer describe the ups and downs of the “Silver Ten”. To be precise, the market started from price increases in the context of the global energy crisis, developed from power rationing in the context of dual energy consumption controls, broke out from the capital carnival led by coal prices, and finally fell to the altar due to policy regulation. Commodities entered a carnival moment in mid-to-early October. Led by the three major energy sources of coal, natural gas, and crude oil, most commodities, especially chemicals, entered a historic high-shine stage, but fell back to the starting point in just a few trading days in the second half of October. It is clear that the high point has passed and a new cycle is about to begin. The market currently has room for downward adjustment. When will it bottom out has become the focus of the market.
Cost side: The price increase of ethylene glycol started with coal and was lost to coal. Recently, Ethylene glycol has been divided into the coal sector by market participants. Although crude oil futures prices have once again hit multi-year highs, the continued decline in coal prices under policy control has dragged down the downward adjustment of ethylene glycol links and broken through the oil production cost line. The market’s first line of defense has been broken, and subsequent targets have begun to focus on the coal production cost line. If calculated using the 440 yuan benchmark price of thermal coal uniformly formulated by the National Development and Reform Commission, even if it rises by 20% to 528 yuan, most of the cost of coal to ethylene glycol It should be around 4500. According to the current market price around 5700, it is still much higher than the policy guidance cost. However, it is obvious that although most coal-to-ethylene glycol companies are supported by their own group coal mines, the proportion of coal costs is still high. , it remains to be seen whether the low cost at the policy end can be achieved in the future. In addition, international crude oil has been running at a high level, the international energy situation is still tense, and cost-driven is the bottom foundation of the market. In the short term, the cost side can maintain support for the time being. Supply side: As the early port stagnation situation has eased, port unloading has accelerated recently, and the main port inventory is expected to accumulate. Affected by the shortage of raw materials and power rationing, the commissioning of new devices in the second half of the year has been delayed. Recently, Guanghui’s 400,000 tons of ethylene dioxide The alcohol unit has been debugged and discharged. At present, the new 800,000-ton unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II Phase 2# is expected to be put into trial operation in November after the crude oil quota problem is resolved. After the power cuts are eased in Jiangsu, the Haike DMC by-product unit is also expected to be commissioned. It is expected to be put into production and commissioning in November, and Shenhua Yulin’s 400,000-ton unit is also moving forward. Although the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol is not high at present, the expected start-up of the new unit may have another impact on the already weak ethylene glycol market. Add pressure.
Demand side: As the power restriction factors eased in the fourth quarter, the overall downstream polyester production started With a slight increase, coupled with the decline in raw materials, although the cost side has lost support, the cash flow situation has improved significantly, and polyester inventory has also dropped significantly. However, under the influence of panic caused by the overall pullback of the industrial chain, terminal procurement remained cautious, and the overall downstream production and sales were poor. The overall average production and sales of polyester shorts during the week was 26%, which was a 27% decrease from last week. The average production and sales of polyester yarn during the week is estimated to be around 23%, which is a 37% decrease from the previous week. In addition, due to policy requirements in mid-to-early November, the operating rate of polyester may be expected to be lowered. Overall, the demand side will not be able to provide strong support for raw materials for the time being. Generally speaking, after experiencing the previous high, it is difficult for the market to surpass the previous high. Recently, the market has been mostly fluctuated by market changes guided by policies. During the correction and adjustment process, the market will have recurrences as panic is released, but in the end It will return to a reasonable range guided by fundamentals. </p
