It is November, and the textile market, which has experienced a surge in raw materials and limited production and supply, may be even more entangled than in October.
Today’s distorted supply and demand market affects price trends. In fact, from a point perspective, price is determined by supply and demand; from a line perspective, supply and demand are affected by price. Among these two entangled factors, weaving manufacturers can be said to act based on the “face” of the market. In the face of large fluctuations in raw materials and uncertain policies, manufacturers operate more conservatively.
At the same time, the prices of upstream raw materials have begun to fall, and the dyeing fee prices have continued to increase. However, weaving companies have greater resistance to raising prices, and the price of gray fabrics is at a relatively low level, and the inventory of weaving manufacturers It has no choice but to be devalued, the profit level is average, and the enthusiasm for production is not high. Even if the power restriction policy is relaxed, the overall weaving operation is still at a low level. Although some manufacturers currently report increased demand for winter orders, the average number of terminal weaving order days at the end of the month was 27.61 days, an increase of 1.11 days month-on-month, but a decrease compared with the same period last year 10.39 days. After mid-November, as winter clothing orders are gradually delivered, the market may continue to be quiet. This will inevitably increase the determination of weaving manufacturers to clear inventory.
First of all, downstream weaving mills are more resistant to the surge in raw materials. According to price monitoring, the prices of various products in the domestic polyester filament market in October hit a new high in the past two years. As of October 29, the prices of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are quoted at 8350-8600 yuan/ton for polyester POY (150D/48F), 10500-10800 yuan/ton for polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity), and 10500-10800 yuan/ton for polyester FDY (150D/96F). ) The price is quoted at 8750-8850 yuan/ton.
As the cost side weakens, downstream weaving companies are resistant and less willing to purchase , more options for on-demand purchasing. At present, some manufacturers report that the profits of some gray fabric factories are relatively limited. Due to production restrictions, some orders have even been missed, and production enthusiasm is difficult to improve.
For the past two years, many places still implement the “dual control” policy. Recently, power restriction policies have been re-introduced in Taicang, Jiangsu, Tongxiang, Jiaxing, Zhejiang and other places. The operating rates of textile enterprises and weaving mills are relatively high. If the demand is low, it is difficult to improve the demand, so more purchases are made based on demand. Some textile companies reported that they had not received new orders for a long time, and some even did not receive orders for 20 days at most. It is understood that the current yarn price is still profitable based on the price of cotton raw materials 20 days before the spinning cycle, but based on the current market, it is basically at a loss. The raw material inventory of textile enterprises is still at the highest level in the past four years, about 35 days.
Also taking the cotton yarn market as an example, it is still relatively bleak at present, and the inventory of finished products of textile enterprises is gradually declining. Accumulated to 2018 highs. As of October 29, the average daily inventory of finished cotton yarn in textile companies was around 22.5 days. At the end of October, large-scale factories have basically completed their early orders, and their inventory is around 15 days. Small and medium-sized yarn mills generally have around 20 days of inventory, and some yarn mills even have 30 days of inventory. In the final analysis, there is a problem with downstream demand. After entering the golden month of September, orders from weaving mills have only remained around 11-12 days, which is far worse than in 2020 during the epidemic and 2019 during the trade war. At the same time, the finished product inventory of downstream cotton weaving mills has also reached a high level during the same period in previous years.
It is understood that textile companies and cloth factories cannot express optimism about the market outlook. At the same time, orders from weaving mills showed the characteristics of the off-season from July to August. Part of the reason for the current low number of orders is the forward movement of orders caused by the global supply and demand mismatch and logistics barriers caused by the epidemic. With overseas markets such as India and Vietnam When traditional textile processing bases resume production, a wave of potential demand will also be diverted away. </p
