In November, the harvest progress of seed cotton in Xinjiang has exceeded 60%. Most of northern Xinjiang has come to an end. The harvest rate of hand-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang has also exceeded 70%. The acquisition of machine-picked cotton is in full swing. It is expected that Xinjiang seed cotton Harvest will end around November 20th.
According to statistics, as of November 1, the cumulative processing volume of lint cotton in Xinjiang Cotton District in 2021/22 was 1.601 million tons, which was significantly lower than the same period last year. The cumulative public inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton 1,174,868 tons, a decrease of 226,792 tons compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 16.18%.
More than half of the seed cotton has been purchased, and the sales price has declined steadily. The business focus of cotton processing enterprises in Xinjiang has begun to shift to lint sales. At present, the comprehensive cost of machine-picked cotton in the supervision warehouse in Xinjiang is generally more than 1,500 yuan/ton higher than the contract price of Zheng cotton CF2201. Due to the difference in purchase price, the gross weight cost of machine-picked cotton in the warehouse is concentrated at 23,500-24,000 yuan/ton. Different There are differences among enterprises and different regions. Therefore, the trend of short-term cost and futures inversion may be difficult to change, and it is difficult for processing companies to have hedging sales opportunities.
Since last weekend, the “fixed price” of machine-picked cotton in Xinjiang’s “Double 28 and Double 29” warehouses is about 23,200-23,500 yuan/ton (weight settlement), cotton processing enterprises Can achieve capital preservation or slight profit. The current purchasing quantity of traders or futures companies is not large, and only a few “Double 29, Double 30” batches with high water premium and low impurities can be traded.
Do Xinjiang cotton processing enterprises have self-rescue measures in November? The author believes that firstly, in order to alleviate the financial and operational pressure, some batches of high-grade machine-picked cotton are sold, and low profits or even small profits are acceptable; secondly, while the price of cottonseed is at a relatively high level, we should seize the opportunity to sell; thirdly, between the lint cost and Zheng cotton market, Under the premise that the inversion is relatively large, a certain proportion of hedging should be carried out, especially for machine-picked cotton with “Double 29” and above indicators, because once the current price of cotton drops, it will help cotton processing companies to hedge risks; fourth, continue to suppress the purchase of seed cotton. Price, dilute the cost of lint. </p
