Since November, promotions by polyester filament manufacturers have become the norm again. According to price monitoring, the domestic polyester filament market has continued to decline in November. As of November 5, the quotations of polyester POY (150D/48F) from mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are The price of polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) is 9900-10200 yuan/ton, and the price of polyester FDY (150D/96F) is 8200-8400 yuan/ton.
The promotion effect is acceptable but the sustainability is not as good as expected. After several concentrated promotions, currently The polyester filament market is still in a state of price but no market, sporadic low-price supply transactions are good, and most companies’ inventories continue to increase. At present, the overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated at 16-26 days, of which POY inventory is around 12-19 days, FDY inventory is around 15-17 days, and DTY inventory is around 17-25 days.
Under this situation, polyester factories are currently seeking to change their strategies. Polyester filament salesmen are shouting: Prices are going to increase, hurry up and stock up! According to the general information of the content in Moments, it is said that the current upstream polyester raw materials are expected to rebound after the sharp decline. The cost of polyester will be supported in November. Later discounts will be cancelled. Some in-demand varieties will increase. It is recommended to stock up before the increase.
Behind this series of shouts, is a new round of market conditions about to begin again? The editor believes that the impact on the polyester market is still weak.
Order-oriented exports slow down
“Double Eleven” cannot change the reality of sluggish demand
Most industry insiders believe that textile and apparel sales are expected to decline. From January to July, the single-month retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles continued to grow positively year-on-year, but the growth rate converged rapidly from April. From August to September, the year-on-year growth rate turned from positive to negative, falling by 6% and 4.8% respectively. From January to September, cumulative retail sales were 964.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, but lower than the same period in 2019.
In terms of exports, from August to September, the monthly export volume of clothing increased year-on-year. However, due to the impact of front-loading overseas orders, the export growth rate in the fourth quarter may slow down. .
It is expected that textile and clothing e-commerce consumption will still have large sales during Double Eleven. However, other than that, it is difficult for the market to have other demand growth points, and the market has already overdrawn part of the demand in advance. , so the advancement of e-commerce platforms is difficult to change the reality of sluggish domestic demand.
Still selling goods
Ester raw materials have fallen for four consecutive weeks
Crude oil has fallen significantly. Oil prices have plummeted due to the Federal Reserve’s tightening of monetary policy and the reduction of bond purchases. Although the results of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting were implemented, the production increase was maintained unchanged, in line with market expectations.
However, there are reports that Saudi Arabia’s oil production will soon exceed 10 million barrels per day, and expectations of tight supply have cooled, putting oil prices under pressure. But at present, there is no basis for continuous decline in crude oil. The oil market is cautiously bullish and there is still support on the cost side. However, the PTA market is still in a state of oversupply, with goods still being sold, and inventory is currently accumulating.
As of November 5, the PTA market continued to fall slightly, with the average spot market price at 4,919 yuan/ton, down 4.00% from the beginning of the week and up 52.19% year-on-year. Negative factors such as the weakening of crude oil and the contradiction between supply and demand have caused the PTA market to fall for four consecutive weeks.
It is difficult to find bargain hunting in the downstream market
Polyester filament must be promoted Shipping
As the raw material market prices continue to decline, terminal weaving factories are more cautious and wait and see. There are not many new orders, and production of early orders is maintained. The comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is around 65%. , the market conditions gradually weakened. Therefore, for downstream users, they have not yet reached the stage of concentrated bargain hunting, and are still focusing on phased replenishment.
On the premise that there is no major change in terminal demand, it is difficult for polyester filament to reverse the sales promotion model. However, most autumn and winter fabrics have been stocked in advance, and the demand for polyester filament has been overdrawn in advance. The demand for Double Eleven is also difficult to reflect, so the market still needs to be treated with caution. </p
