In October 2021, the China National Textile and Apparel Industry Federation launched a survey on the current business situation of textile enterprise managers. After sorting and analyzing effective data, the prosperity index of textile enterprises in the third quarter of 2021 has dropped slightly compared with the second quarter, and the industry’s expectations for the fourth quarter are more cautious.
01 The overall business sentiment dropped slightly
It is estimated that the prosperity index of my country’s textile industry in the third quarter was 58.7, down 6.7 points from the second quarter. The main reason is that it is affected by factors such as the complex and severe international environment, the impact of the domestic epidemic and flood conditions, the continued rise in raw material prices, and tight energy and power. This is also consistent with the development trend of the manufacturing purchasing managers index from the National Bureau of Statistics. After being in the expansion range for 18 consecutive months, the manufacturing PMI index was 49.6 in September, exiting the expansion range.
Data source: China Textile Industry Federation Industrial Economics Research Institute
In the third quarter of 2021, the profitability of my country’s textile industry was relatively high It declined in the second quarter. According to the survey, 38.9% of textile companies said that their profits increased in the third quarter compared with the second quarter, and this proportion was 11.1 percentage points lower than the second quarter survey results; 29.2% of textile companies said that their profits decreased compared with the second quarter, and this proportion increased from the second quarter survey results. 13.4 percentage points.
02 Production continues to grow
According to It is estimated that the production index of the textile industry in the third quarter of 2021 is 62.2, which is slightly lower than the high of 73.9 in the second quarter, but the overall production is still in the expansion range.
Data source: Industrial Economic Research Institute of China Textile and Apparel Industry Federation
Subject to the increase in the added value of the textile industry in the previous year. Due to the influence of the base number, the growth rate of added value of the industry this year has shown a trend of first high and then low. Taking the textile industry as an example, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September 2021, the industrial added value of my country’s textile industry increased by 3.7% year-on-year, 4.5 percentage points lower than the growth rate in the first half of the year. But overall, the output of my country’s main textile products still maintains growth at varying rates. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September 2021, chemical fiber increased by 13.5% year-on-year, yarn increased by 12.7% year-on-year, and cloth increased by 10.1% year-on-year.
03 Consumption growth slows down
According to estimates, the new order index of my country’s textile industry in the third quarter of 2021 was 61.5, a decrease of 8.6 points from the second quarter, but market demand is still in the growth range. The main reasons are that the domestic epidemic has occurred from multiple sources and points, which has affected residents’ travel and consumption to a certain extent; international market demand has been weak and transportation costs have increased; coupled with the high base in the same period last year, it has also affected the growth of new orders. In addition, since mid-May, peak power consumption has occurred in large areas in the south, and the power supply situation in some areas has been tight, causing companies to be afraid to accept orders.
Data source: China National Textile and Apparel Federation Industrial Economics Research Institute
Domestic online and offline consumer markets have good sales and internal circulation smooth. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September 2021, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles in my country were 964.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%. The retail sales of online clothing increased by 15.6% year-on-year, but the growth rate was higher than that of the previous year. There was a decline in the first half of the year. According to the survey, the most important problems currently encountered by enterprises in domestic sales are rising raw material prices and insufficient domestic orders. 38.0% of the sample enterprises listed rising raw material prices as the first problem faced by enterprises in domestic sales, and 33.8% of the sample enterprises listed domestic orders as the top problem. Insufficiency is listed as the number one problem faced by enterprises in domestic sales.
International market orders have shrunk and export growth has declined. According to estimates, in the third quarter of 2021, the international order index of my country’s textile industry was 51.6, and new orders were smaller than in the second quarter. According to Chinese customs data, from January to September 2021, my country’s textile and clothing exports were US$227.59 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. Among them, textile exports were US$105.18 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%; clothing exports were US$122.41 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%; The growth rate has declined to varying degrees compared with the first half of the year. According to the survey, the main problems currently encountered by enterprises in exporting are insufficient international orders and rising shipping costs. 48.1% of the sample enterprises listed insufficient international orders as the number one problem facing their exports, and 20.0% of the sample enterprises listed shipping costs. Rising prices are listed as the No. 1 problem faced by enterprise exports.
04 Raw material prices remain high
According to estimates, the raw material purchase price index of my country’s textile industry in the third quarter of 2021 was 80.6, only 0.3 percentage points lower than the price index in the previous period. Raw material prices remain high, which still puts great pressure on the operations of textile companies. However, judging from the expectations for the fourth quarter, prices are on a downward trend, and the raw material price index may drop to 69.2.
Data source: China Textile Industry Federation Industrial Economics Research Institute
According to market tracking data, in September 2021, the international The average price of WTI crude oil was US$70.7/barrel, a slight decrease of 0.2% from the average price in June. Crude oil prices are highBit running. The average price of PTA, the main upstream raw material for chemical fiber products, was 4,862 yuan/ton in September, a slight increase of 1.7% from June; the price of MEG was 5,418 yuan/ton in September, an increase of 9.3% from June. Prices remain high. The average domestic cotton price in September remained at 18,237 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.1% from the average cotton price in June. The price of polyester staple fiber reached 7,004 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.6% from June; but the price of viscose staple fiber fell back to 12,503 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.3% from June. Overall, textile raw material prices remain high.
05 Industry investment remains stable
In the third quarter of 2021, my country’s textile industry as a whole maintained a relatively stable investment pace. According to the survey, 46.4% of companies said that investment will remain stable this year; 32.9% of companies said that investment will increase this year; and 20.7% of companies said that investment will decrease. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September 2021, fixed asset investment in my country’s textile industry, textile and apparel industry, and chemical fiber industry increased by 13.5%, 3.1%, and 29.5% year-on-year respectively. Although overall, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the textile industry has slowed down this year, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the chemical fiber industry has exceeded the average growth rate of the manufacturing industry since July, and the growth rate from January to September has been higher than that of the manufacturing industry. 14.7 percentage points; the growth rate of the textile industry is also constantly approaching the average investment growth level of the manufacturing industry.
Among its new fixed asset investment projects, although companies have invested more in upgrading and transforming their original production capacity this year, 44.1% of the companies have upgraded and transformed their original production capacity, which is the main new addition of the company at present. Fixed asset investment projects; however, 27.9% of the sample companies still built new production capacity. According to corporate feedback, the main factors affecting corporate investment are the market prospects of the industry and corporate benefits. 72.2% of companies said that market prospects are an important factor affecting their investment, and 64.6% of companies said that corporate efficiency is an important factor affecting their investment.
06 Be cautious about future development
The surveyed companies made an outlook for the industry in the fourth quarter of 2021 based on their own production and operation status and feelings about the market. Overall, companies are more cautious in judging the industry’s prosperity in the fourth quarter. According to calculations, the textile industry prosperity index is expected to be 58.8 in the fourth quarter of 2021, which is slightly higher than the current industry prosperity index in the third quarter by 0.1 points. The company believes that the operating speed in the fourth quarter is generally the same as that in the third quarter. Specifically, it is expected that production will maintain stable operation in the fourth quarter; new orders may increase slightly, and market demand is expected to expand; raw material prices may fall back from high levels.
Data source: China Textile Industry Federation Industrial Economics Research Institute</p
