Since mid-October, polyester chains have collectively declined. Among them, ethylene glycol fell by more than 32%, hitting a low of nearly three months; short fiber fell by nearly 19%, falling to a low of more than two months. PTA was relatively strong, down less than 10%.
What is the main logic behind the recent decline in the polyester chain? What is the reason for the relatively strong performance of ethylene glycol basis today? What is the actual production and sales situation of the polyester segment recently?
Reporter: The polyester chain has continued to decline since mid-October. What is the main logic of short selling? During this period, PTA had the smallest cumulative decline. What is the reason?
Founder mid-term futures energy researcher Zhai Qidi: The main logic behind the continued decline of the polyester industry chain in mid-to-late October lies in the collapse of costs and the weakening of terminal speculative demand. First of all, in mid-October, under the guidance of policies, coal prices fell back from highs, while crude oil also behaved cautiously under the expectation of supply recovery and the Federal Reserve’s forward interest rate hike expectations. . Secondly, since September, the “dual control” of domestic energy consumption has affected the supply of the polyester industry chain, while the terminal demand during the “Golden September and Silver Ten” seasons has improved seasonally on a month-on-month basis. With supply and demand improving, both terminal rigid demand and speculative demand have followed up, and costs have increased. Conduction to the downstream is smoother. However, after mid-October, power restrictions in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were gradually relaxed, and supply in all links of the industrial chain rebounded. At the same time, new terminal orders gradually weakened, terminal supply and demand weakened, and downstream rigid demand mainly followed up. Speculative demand fell, and futures prices were under pressure.
The smallest cumulative decline in PTA during the period is not due to the best supply and demand side of PTA, but during the early rising market, the market mainly focused on “coal chemical industry” topics such as ethylene glycol, or downstream areas where the supply and demand of the industrial chain have improved significantly. For varieties such as polyester staple fiber, PTA was mainly driven by rising costs in the early rising market. The increase was smaller than that of ethylene glycol and polyester staple fiber. Therefore, under the driving change, the increase that can be taken back is also smaller.
Pang Chunyan, senior analyst of SDIC Essence Futures: The PTA industry is under great pressure of oversupply and the processing difference is low. Therefore, the price mainly follows the oil price passively, and the rise and fall are more moderate compared to the coal chemical industry. During the sharp rise in coal prices, ethylene glycol, as a coal chemical product, experienced a large increase, and also suffered a large decline during the sharp fall in coal prices. Especially after the coal price fell and the shortage of coal resources was alleviated, the coal chemical industry The problem of shortage of raw materials for the equipment has also been solved. The units that were shut down in the early stage are expected to resume production, and some units that have been postponed are planning to be put into production. The expectations of supply growth and falling costs will create a double impact on ethylene glycol.
Liu Jiao, analyst at Huishang Futures Research Institute: After mid-October, coal prices began to fall sharply after rising sharply to highs, which led to a weak overall commodity atmosphere. The demand side began to weaken, and the polyester chain Continued decline. Among them, the correction of ethylene glycol is obvious, mainly because the end-end support of coal-to-ethylene glycol has been significantly weakened by the sharp drop in coal prices, while short fiber has also corrected more due to insufficient support from terminal demand. For PTA, although crude oil has corrected, it still maintains a high level overall, which has certain cost support for PTA.
Reporter: What is the reason for the relatively strong performance of ethylene glycol basis today? Will it be one of the driving forces to help stabilize the market?
Founder mid-term futures energy researcher Zhai Qidi: 1The current ethylene glycol spot basis is around 35~50 yuan/ton premium for the 01 contract, which is at a discount to the PTA spot 01 contract. 70-75 yuan/ton, and the ethylene glycol basis difference is relatively strong. This is mainly because the current port inventory of ethylene glycol is still at a low level. Although some coal chemical plants are expected to restart and new units are expected to be put into operation within the year, considering the current benefits, commissioning and many other factors, the actual increase during the year is expected to be limited. In terms of imports, port operation efficiency is still limited. Although overseas maintenance has been relatively few recently, import volume is expected to rebound month-on-month, but the increase is limited. In terms of export, the current domestic ethylene glycol price is at a global price low, and there is a demand for re-export in the near future. In terms of rigid demand, the operating rate of downstream polyester is expected to rise to 88%-89% in the future, and rigid demand will rebound month-on-month. Overall, although the market has pessimistic expectations for a recovery in forward supply, considering the time it will take for supply to pick up, ports are expected to maintain low inventories during the year, and the basis will still be supported, which will also become a factor in helping the market stabilize. one. In addition, we still need to pay attention to the trend of cost-end coal and oil prices in the future.
Pang Chunyan, senior analyst at SDIC Essence Futures: Although the market is trading on expectations of supply growth, the current situation of low ethylene glycol inventory has not significantly improved. As of mid-November, the East China port inventory according to CCF statistics is still hovering at a low level of around 600,000 tons, which is at a historically low level. At present, the market is mainly under the background of falling transaction coal prices and the possible accumulation pressure caused by the resumption of coal chemical industry and the commissioning of new equipment. However, while the price of ethylene glycol has fallen, the profits of the ethylene process have also declined significantly. As coal prices stabilize, , the profits of the coal chemical industry have also declined significantly. Once the resumption of production of old equipment and the commissioning of new equipment fail to meet expectations, the market may once again deal with the reality of low inventory.
Liu Jiao, analyst at Huishang Futures Research Institute: The current basis performance of ethylene glycol is relatively strong, mainly because the tight supply of coal has kept the start-up of coal-to-ethylene glycol at a low level, while oil-to-ethylene glycol production has been at a low level due to the tight supply of coal. Due to the impact of equipment maintenance and low supply, the spot price of ethylene glycol has been in a tight situation recently. The strong basis difference has a certain supporting effect on the market price of ethylene glycol. However, under the continued influence of the current supply guarantee policy for coal, the price of coal in the later period will beThe supply is expected to increase. Although the spot price of ethylene glycol is still tight in the short term, the tight spot situation of ethylene glycol in the medium and long term does not rule out the possibility of being changed.
Reporter: What is the actual production and sales situation of polyester in the near future? The main force of short fiber has fallen to the low level this year. Will the contradiction between supply and demand further intensify in the future?
Zhai Qidi, Energy Chemical Researcher of Founder Mid-term Futures: Recently, the production and sales of polyester products such as polyester filament and polyester staple fiber have been light. Mainstream polyester manufacturers are still continuing their price-raising and phased promotion strategies. However, there have been insufficient new terminal orders recently and sluggish demand for speculative stocking in weaving, so follow-up is the main priority. Therefore, most of the time, the production and sales of polyester factories are less than 50%, and production and sales are only increased and flat during promotions.
The recent decline in short fiber prices is mainly due to the decline in raw materials and the decline in terminal demand. In fact, the current contradiction between supply and demand of polyester staple fiber is not outstanding. After the delivery of the staple fiber 11 contract, factory equity inventories have dropped significantly recently. Most factories have low inventories or even out-of-stocks, and shipments of some brands are still tight. Judging from the current industrial chain inventory structure, factory inventories and yarn mill raw material stockpiles are both at low levels. Although the inventory of middlemen has rebounded after the delivery of the November contract, they are still willing to restock when the basis difference is appropriate. Pure polyester Finished yarn and polyester-cotton yarn inventory levels are high. Therefore, the current potential willingness of the industry chain to replenish inventory is relatively high, and the release of this part of demand depends on the terminal, especially when foreign trade orders are placed.
Pang Chunyan, senior analyst at SDIC Essence Futures: The production and sales of polyester filament continue to deviate, and the recent two price reduction promotions have not been ideal, which shows that demand is weak in the off-season. After the intensive replenishment from the end of September to the beginning of October, the enthusiasm for short fiber downstream procurement has been low, the overall production and sales are relatively sluggish, and the inventory continues to rise. According to CCF data, the number of short fiber inventory days has continued to rise from the 5-day low of 10.8 days. , reaching 8.7 days in mid-November, the highest level since April 2020. However, some brand inventories will be sold through futures delivery, and there is little pressure on corporate inventories. Therefore, although futures prices continue to fall along with raw materials, short fiber spot prices are strong. Overall, the short fiber market inventory is backlogged at upstream manufacturers, but the inventory of downstream current merchants and yarn mills is low, and there is a need for replenishment. After delivery, part of the supply flows from manufacturers to current merchants and downstream enterprises. The contradiction will not exist for the time being. Too obviously intensified.
Liu Jiao, analyst at Huishang Futures Research Institute: While polyester production is improving, affected by the lackluster terminal orders, polyester production and sales are difficult to increase, and terminal purchases are cautious and mainly focus on digesting early inventory. . Polyester staple fiber currently has no strong fundamental support. In order to stop falling and stabilize in the short term, in addition to hoping for the stabilization of polyester raw materials, the fundamental driving force also needs to come from the recovery of terminal consumption. However, considering that the current spot processing fee space is low and Supported by factors such as tight shipments by some companies, the market decline is expected to be limited. </p
