Recently, the chemical fiber industry has been suffering from power rationing and production restrictions in various places, and the dramatic fluctuations in coal prices for bulk textile raw materials. Raw material manufacturers have been complaining, and downstream polyester factories have been struggling. Attacked by multiple factors, the polyester raw material fell to the point of heartbreak, and the chemical fiber people felt tired after seeing it!
The collapse of crude oil has once again cast dark clouds on the polyester market!
But I never thought that the new crown epidemic in Europe has continued to worsen recently, and the market has intensified concerns about European blockades. The collapse of crude oil has once again cast dark clouds on the polyester market! Crude oil prices began to fall sharply on the 18th, with WTI crude oil prices falling to $78.36/barrel, a drop of -$2.40/barrel. This was the first time in the past three weeks that WTI crude oil fell below the $80/barrel mark. Continuing the decline of the previous trading day during the evening trading session on the 20th, the crude oil market plummeted again across the board. At the early morning closing, WTI January crude oil futures closed down $2.47, or 3.15%, at $75.94/barrel; Brent January crude oil futures closed at $75.94/barrel. It closed down $2.35, or 2.89%, to $78.89 per barrel.
The plummeting market not only shocked many market participants, especially some industry figures who originally had expectations for oil prices. It was even more surprising. This has made the polyester industry chain even worse.
Falling off the altar of price increases
The polyester industry chain is experiencing a “dark” moment!
Since October, driven by the fundamentals of oversupply, polyester market prices have continued to fall.
On November 17, the price of PTA was 4,936 yuan/ton and the price of ethylene glycol was 4,965 yuan/ton, down 10.49% and 34.38% from the high point in mid-October.
Polyester filament is equally miserable. According to monitoring, the prices of 150D FDY, 150D POY, and 150D DTY are respectively 7,980 yuan/ton, 7,780 yuan/ton, and 9,450 yuan/ton. Yuan/ton, respectively, dropped by 1120 yuan/ton, 1220 yuan/ton, and 1200 yuan/ton from mid-October, with decreases of 12%, 14%, and 11%.
Based on the above situation, it can be seen that the price of ethylene glycol has dropped the most, with a drop of 34.38%, and PTA has dropped by 16.45%. The prices of other raw materials have also shown a sharp downward trend. . Compared with the continuous rise in raw material prices after September last year, with an increase of nearly 50%, polyester raw materials have been out of the price increase this year.
Terminal orders are unlikely to improve in the near future
The difficulty of destocking the polyester industry chain has increased
At the same time, both the inventory of terminal weaving companies and the inventory of polyester factories have increased significantly recently, indicating that it is difficult to destock the industrial chain. increase, the corresponding enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials will be seriously insufficient. At present, Christmas and “Double 12” and other orders have been basically completed. At present, polyester terminal companies are producing to meet rigid needs, and the market lacks enthusiasm for stocking up. Especially against the background of tightening fiscal policies and superimposed epidemic prevention and control, it is difficult for terminal orders to improve in the near future.
Affected by power restrictions and limited terminal orders, the overall operating load of the polyester industry is lower than the same period in previous years. As of November 12, the operating loads of polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester filament, polyester industrial yarn, and polyester staple fiber industries were 84.69%, 74.22%, 77.59%, 63.8%, and 77.21% respectively. The overall inventory of polyester products increased slightly compared with last year, and the destocking pressure of polyester companies was neutral. As of November 11, polyester filament FDY inventory was 26.8 days, an increase of 5 days from the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 28.57%; polyester filament POY inventory was 18.8 days, an increase of 0.8 days from the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 4.44%.
At present, in winter, the terminal weaving industry has entered the peak winter equipment and stocking season, and the operating load has a seasonal rebound demand. Moreover, with the steady increase in power supply, the operating load of polyester enterprises has also increased. There are certain rising expectations. However, the “dual control” of energy consumption in East China continues, and the operating loads of terminal weaving and texturing enterprises are lower than the same period in previous years. At the same time, most weaving companies can only maintain their orders until the end of November or early December, and only a small number of orders can be extended until next spring.
Placing hope in the last wave of market conditions this year
But polyester has overdrafted the future market, and will eventually have to pay for the overdraft
Although the prices of many domestic raw materials have declined to varying degrees, many polyester companies are still at a loss. , some weaving companies said that the biggest problem facing companies currently is the continued weak market demand. No matter how much the price of raw materials drops without orders, it will be useless. In the short term, upstream demand ultimately depends on changes in the terminal market. According to the rules of previous years, there will be another market surge in the early Spring Festival. Especially at this time, foreign trade orders should also see a market surge, but now there is Overseas epidemics have made it difficult to grab containers, and 32 countries have canceled their inclusive policies for my country. The prospects for the foreign trade market are confusing. If the market before the end of this year does not come as expected, then the inventory that was finally cleared during the production limit will be The barrier will be raised again, and the market will once again fall into a vicious cycle.
Judging from the adjustment of the national industrial structure, whether it is the polyester market, raw material market or end users, they are all in a serious surplus stage. We have overdrawn the future market and ultimately You still have to pay for the overdraft. </p
