Brent oil prices fell back 4.01% from their high last week, falling for four consecutive weeks. Ren Xue, an oil analyst at Ping An Futures, believes that this round of decline in crude oil is mainly due to the combined effects of multiple negative factors. According to her, after the previously announced U.S. inflation index rose sharply, news of the U.S. releasing oil reserves and calling on Japan, South Korea and other countries to release reserves were released one after another. In addition, two major international energy organizations have released pessimistic expectations. OPEC predicts that the global oil market may shift from shortage to surplus as soon as next month. The IEA also proposes that as production rebounds, the oil price rise is about to end. At the same time, the recurrence of the epidemic in Europe has also accelerated the release of pessimism. Austria implemented a nationwide blockade this week, becoming the first EU country to re-implement a blockade this winter.
“After the opening yesterday, crude oil rebounded due to the renewed conflict between the Houthi armed forces in Yemen and Saudi Arabia and the attack on Saudi oil refineries. However, the impact of geopolitics on oil prices is usually relatively short-lived. .” Ren Xue said. In the short term, with the recurrence of the epidemic, many regions are facing blockades again, and demand is expected to weaken. On the supply side, OPEC+ maintains a steady increase in production as planned, the U.S. inflation index remains high, and the Biden administration has frequently taken measures to put pressure on oil prices, with direct measures It will be a dump. At the same time, the upcoming negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement at the end of the month are also expected to accelerate, and the fundamentals of crude oil supply and demand are weakening marginally.
“However, taking into account that global inventories are relatively low and oil-producing countries are at risk of insufficient capital investment, the approval of Beixi 2 has been suspended. With European gas prices high, it is still possible to There is replacement demand in winter, so there is still bottom support after the decline in sentiment, and crude oil may mainly oscillate at a high level.” Ren Xue mentioned.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Khatibzadeh said on the 22nd that the window to return to the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue will not always be open to the United States.
Khatibzadeh said at a regular press conference that day that Iran hopes that the Iranian nuclear negotiations, which will be restarted in the Austrian capital Vienna later this month, will lead to the lifting of sanctions on Iran. A “pragmatic and comprehensive agreement” was reached. If the Iran nuclear deal cannot bring specific economic benefits to Iran and cannot help Iran normalize its foreign trade, “the United States should know that this window will not remain open forever.”
Khatibzadeh said that Iran will participate in the Iranian nuclear negotiations with sincerity and also hopes that other relevant parties will seriously participate in the negotiations. If relevant parties lack sincerity or pursue “unconstructive intentions” in negotiations, Iran will respond.
Khatibzadeh said that International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Grossi will start a visit to Iran that evening and hopes that this visit will be as “constructive” as before. Iran has always suggested that the International Atomic Energy Agency cooperate with Iran within the framework of technical cooperation and not allow individual countries to advance their political intentions in the name of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
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