Crude oil
Crude oil: International crude oil prices rose first and then fell this week. At the macro level, U.S. President Biden has repeatedly mentioned the idea of releasing the U.S. strategic oil reserves and called on other countries to release oil reserves. Crude oil prices plummeted as soon as the news came out. On the other hand, OPEC+’s current production increase policy is still relatively conservative, and it has still shown no willingness to expand the scale of production increase in response to pressure from the United States. In addition, the new South African variant of the virus triggered huge waves in the market, and U.S. oil plummeted 13%, the largest decline since April last year. In this regard, OPEC+ may choose to suspend its production increase plan, or even consider cutting production to offset the negative impact of falling oil prices on the recovery of global oil capital expenditures. As of Friday’s close, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $10.24, or 13.1%, to $68.15 per barrel. The price of Brent crude oil (ICE) futures on London’s Intercontinental Exchange closed down $9.5, or 11.6%, to $72.72 per barrel.
PX aspect
PX: The PX market price trend declined this week. At present, PX production efficiency is poor, the market continues to destock, and processing fees have also fallen within a narrow range. It is expected that the absolute price of PX market will increase.
PTA aspect
PTA: The domestic PTA spot market rebounded slightly after reaching a low this week. As of the close of trading, the weekly average price of PTA spot market in East China was 4808.8 yuan/ton, with the weekly average price falling 1.38% month-on-month. International oil prices still weakened and fluctuated after a slight rebound, resulting in only slight support on the cost side. PTA itself has been restarted one after another, and the supply has increased; the load of downstream polyester is stable, maintaining rigid support for PTA. Taken together, the cost side only eased slightly during the week, and the loose supply and demand situation has not been effectively improved. Therefore, the PTA market still lacks upward momentum. The PTA market price range is expected to be 4830-4980 yuan/ton next week.
MEG aspect
MEG: The domestic ethylene glycol market experienced an oversold rebound trend this week. Amid strong concerns about the future supply and demand structure, the spot price once fell below the 5,000 yuan/ton mark last Friday. However, the excessive decline triggered bargain hunting. The subsequent market trend showed a steady upward trend, supported by the rebound of crude oil and the still warm supply and demand situation. On the demand side, polyester factories intend to reduce production, and the operating rate will decline, which is negative for the market; on the supply side, the main port inventory remains low, and there will be no significant increase in arrivals next week. The low inventory status is difficult to change for the time being, and the domestic factory operating rate continues Remaining low, Zhejiang Petrochemical’s delay in starting up a new 800,000-ton unit will be positive for the market. Under the interweaving of long and short markets, the market is more likely to stalemate and consolidate. The spot price in East China is expected to run in the range of 5,200-5,400 yuan/ton next week.
Slicing aspect
In terms of slicing: The market price of polyester chips fluctuated within a narrow range this week. At the beginning of the week, international oil prices fell sharply, the cost of polyester was setback, and the focus of the polyester chip market shifted downward; however, in the middle of the week, crude oil rebounded strongly, and the polyester double material was strong, while the transaction price in the chip market was basically stable, and the downstream took the opportunity to moderate Stocking up, production and sales of enterprises have increased, but due to actual demand, downstream resistance to rising slice prices is obvious, and the market trading atmosphere has returned to normal. On the basis that demand has not improved, the market believes that there is still some room for downside in the chip market. It is expected that downstream purchasing volume will be limited next week, and there is a possibility of a downward trend in the market focus. However, the current performance of processing fees is weak, so narrow adjustments will be the focus. .
Polyester
Polyester yarn: The market price of polyester filament yarn continued its downward trend this week and stopped falling in late trading. As of the close of trading, the weekly average market prices of POY (150D/48F), FDY (150D/96F), and DTY (150D/48F) in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions were 7,430 yuan/ton, 7,560 yuan/ton, and 9,095 yuan/ton respectively. From last weekend to the beginning of this week, due to poor demand, market production and sales performance was deserted, and the center of gravity continued to decline. Although there were discounts on Tuesday, the overall effect was average, and the center of gravity fell further. Starting from Wednesday, there were market rumors that mainstream major manufacturers would reduce production to control inventories. , driven by this, the after-hours production and sales data improved significantly; on Thursday, the market focus partially climbed, but the production and sales data also fell. At present, major mainstream manufacturers plan to reduce production and conduct maintenance. In the face of reduced supply, the inventory pressure on polyester filament factories will be alleviated. Prices are expected to rise, but production cuts still need to be implemented, and terminal demand has not shown a substantial improvement. Added to this, there is great uncertainty in the trend of crude oil. It is expected that polyester filament will show a narrow and warm trend in the later period.
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