‘Worst yet’ new variant emerges in South Africa
According to Xinhua News Agency on November 26, the South African health department announced on November 25 that a new mutant strain of the new coronavirus had been discovered in the country.
The National Institute of Communicable Diseases of South Africa issued a statement on the 25th saying that a new variant of the new coronavirus, B.1.1.529, has been detected in South Africa. The British Health Security Agency described it as “the worst one so far” and is different from other variants. The mutant strain has more changes than the spike protein, and the number of mutations is twice that of the currently dominant Delta strain, causing panic in the market.
Since the outbreak of COVID-19, multiple mutant strains of COVID-19 have emerged. Some mutant strains have been classified by the WHO into three categories: “requiring concern”, “requiring attention” and “under surveillance”.
According to WHO’s standards, variants of “requiring concern” refer to variants that can lead to reduced effectiveness of public health strategies, vaccines or therapies; variants of “requiring attention” refer to variants that have the ability to affect the virus Transmissibility, symptom severity, and genetic mutations of immune escape; “monitoring” mutant strains refer to virus characteristics presented by the variant that may bring danger, but there is currently no relevant epidemiological evidence and need to be strengthened Monitoring and evaluation.
According to the official website of the WHO, the WHO currently lists 4 new coronavirus variants as variants of “requiring concern”, namely: Alpha first discovered in the United Kingdom, Beta discovered in South Africa, and Gamut discovered in Brazil. Horse (Gamma) and Delta discovered in India. In addition, there are two new coronavirus variants listed as “need to pay attention”, namely: Lambda (Lambda) first discovered in Peru and the Mu strain (Mu) discovered in Colombia.
Crude oil plummeted 13%, and oil prices may fall easily but hard to rise!
Due to market concerns that the new super coronavirus variant will drag down the global economic recovery and affect demand, international oil prices plummeted by more than 10%. New York crude oil fell below US$70 per barrel for the first time since the end of September, a drop of 13.04%, returning to the level of 3 months ago overnight. ; Brent crude oil is approaching 70 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 11.27%; the main contract of Shanghai crude oil futures fell to the limit yesterday night, a decrease of 8.01%, to 464.1 yuan/barrel.
Global stock markets could not escape the “catastrophe” and fell across the board. The European 50 Index once fell close to 4%, and the Dow Jones futures fell nearly 800 points. As of the close early this morning, the three major U.S. indexes have collectively fallen. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.53%, and has fallen 1.97% this week. The S&P 500 Index has fallen 2.27%, the largest decline since February, and has fallen 2.2% this week. The Nasdaq Composite Index has fallen 2.23%. %, down 3.52% this week.
The VIX panic index, a key indicator reflecting global risk appetite, has been soaring. As of early morning today, the increase expanded to 54%.
It is worth noting that the epidemic situation has rebounded not only in South Africa but also in many European countries recently. In the face of a new wave of epidemics, many European countries have tightened anti-epidemic measures, which may hit economic recovery and cause a major blow to Europe’s fuel demand. Austria was the first to announce a nationwide blockade, and the market is worried that other European countries will implement nationwide blockades one after another, which will severely damage travel and the economy. The Netherlands also ordered shops and bars to close early. It can be seen that demand in Europe will face a decline in the fourth quarter and the gap between supply and demand will narrow.
At the same time, the market is worried that major energy consuming countries are about to release crude oil reserves, which will also have a major negative impact on oil prices. The United States has spent the past few days asking major Asian oil importers to release reserves in response to OPEC+’s refusal earlier this month to increase output at a faster pace. Japan has also said it is considering releasing oil reserves to help keep prices in check.
The combination of various factors ultimately led to a cliff-like drop in crude oil on Friday night.
Market participants believe that the emergence of new variants of the virus has rapidly cooled short-term market sentiment, suppressed global economic growth expectations and crude oil demand, and accelerated the weakness of crude oil market fundamentals. Oil prices may be easy to fall but hard to rise! Analysis points out that due to the resurgence of the epidemic in Europe, demand has weakened and cracking profits have fallen; and the demand recovery in Asia and the United States has basically returned to 90% of the pre-epidemic level, which means that oil prices have not reached much More room for recovery. The supply side will also face an acceleration in the production increase in the United States in the first quarter, so oil prices have entered a pattern that is easy to fall but difficult to rise. The only potential positive news for oil prices is “the explosion of demand for fuel-fired power generation in the cold winter” or OPEC+ lowering its production increase. Otherwise, oil prices will remain weak.
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