Recently, Zheng Cotton’s main contract CF2201 has continued to consolidate in the range of 21,500-22,000 yuan/ton. Due to the lack of supply and demand, policy, and external market guidance, the direction is unclear. Most cotton processing companies and traders have lowered the basis to facilitate transactions. Therefore, 2020/ 21. In 2021/22, spot transactions at warehouses inside and outside Xinjiang show signs of gradually starting. Downstream cotton textile, clothing and other enterprises are surviving in the cracks of high raw material prices, low end-order orders, and slight tightening of credit policies.
Recently, there has been constant news that cotton spinning mills’ spinning profits have turned negative and large losses have occurred. Some small and medium-sized textile companies have responded by reducing production and suspending production. What is the actual situation? In November, a large number of cotton spinning mills purchased and stockpiled cotton, polyester staple fiber and other raw materials before the end of September (including state reserves of cotton). The cost of lint cotton replenished since October was relatively high, and spinning profits were higher than those in the second and third quarters. It’s not surprising that there was a sharp decline in the third quarter, but has the net profit fallen into negative territory?
The author believes that these views are somewhat biased. At present, the quotations of “Double 29” machine-picked cotton in various regulatory warehouses in Xinjiang are concentrated at 22,400-22,550 yuan/ton (taking the middle price of 22,500 yuan/ton), and the direct cost of shipping to mainland yarn mills is about 23,000 Yuan/ton (deducting the 500 Yuan/ton cotton transportation subsidy out of Xinjiang); the comprehensive cost of C40S cotton yarn leaving the factory is 23,000* (1+0.08) + 8,500 Yuan/ton (processing fee) = 33,340 Yuan/ton (each enterprise may have a different large access). At present, the ex-factory price of C40 high-package bleached yarn in the domestic market is about 33,500-34,500 yuan/ton. Therefore, although the profits of C40S cotton yarn companies have dropped significantly compared with the previous months, they are not losing money or their production and sales are flat (excluding 1-2 months of financial costs) ).
In recent days, the transaction price of centrally reserved Xinjiang cotton/imported cotton has been 22,300-22,500 yuan/ton (take 22,400 yuan/ton). The comprehensive cost of C32S high-bale bleached yarn is 22,400*1.06+6,500 yuan/ton (processing fee) = 30,244 yuan/ton. At present, the ex-factory price of C32S high-end yarn in Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu and other places is mostly 31,000-31,500 yuan/ton, and the yarn mills still have a certain profit (not including 1-2 months of financial costs). If Xinjiang cotton + real estate cotton, imported cotton + real estate cotton spinning C32 high-quality yarn are used, the profit will be higher, and the possibility of loss is unlikely. Of course, the premise is that the cotton yarn can be sold in time and paid back. If the inventory is accumulated for 3-6 months, some yarn mills are likely to have no profit or even loss. Therefore, the biggest problem faced by cotton spinning enterprises at present is not whether there is profit, but whether they can receive the money. Sufficient and valid orders.
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