Yesterday, many countries announced travel restrictions on African countries, U.S. President Biden announced the latest anti-epidemic measures to deal with the mutant strain, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell commented on the mutant strain for the first time. Oil prices are even more confusing: Crude oil futures are intraday. After hitting the limit, U.S. oil once soared 7%…
The Iranian nuclear negotiations resumed with an “optimistic” start! International oil prices fluctuate sharply
On November 29, after more than five months of interruption, talks between relevant parties to the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue resumed in Vienna, Austria. Negotiations began at 21:00 Beijing time last night. Representatives from Iran, China, Russia, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom started talks, while representatives from the United States continued to participate indirectly.
Before the meeting, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Bagheri said that the United States must lift all sanctions on Iran, otherwise the Iranian nuclear negotiations will fail. The meeting lasted three hours. After the meeting, Iran issued a statement on the nuclear negotiations, saying that it would be impossible to restore the 2015 agreement without the verifiable lifting of all sanctions imposed on Iran since the United States withdrew. In order to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran should fully benefit from the lifting of all sanctions. The window for negotiations is not always open and lifting of sanctions will be addressed on Tuesday. Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator emphasized that all parties to the talks agreed that the focus of the talks should be to lift sanctions and to assure Iran that no new sanctions would be imposed on Iran.
Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator and the EU’s chief coordinator Mora said they were very optimistic about Iran’s nuclear negotiations and that the negotiations would continue on Tuesday. But both sides also believe that the Iran nuclear negotiations cannot be resolved in a few days.
On November 29, most domestic futures closed lower. The main contract of low-sulfur fuel oil fell by nearly 8%, having previously hit the lower limit. Fuel oil fell by nearly 7%, having previously hit the lower limit.
In terms of international oil prices, WTI crude oil futures rose by more than 7% last night, and Brent crude oil futures rose by 4.69%. However, after Biden and Powell expressed their opinions, both U.S. oil and Brent oil fell sharply. In the end, WTI crude oil rose by 2.77% and Brent crude oil rose by 1.89%. CME Group announced that it will increase the maintenance margin for the New York Port ultra-low sulfur diesel futures December contract, RBOB gasoline futures December contract and January 2022 crude oil futures.
Yang An, head of energy and chemical R&D at Haitong Futures, believes that before oil prices plummeted on Friday, the progress of the Iran nuclear agreement was a point of greater concern to the market. “Because the U.S. government urgently needs to control inflation, and for Biden, controlling energy prices is a top priority, so the U.S. united with many countries to carry out the largest strategic crude oil release operation in history, but it is a pity that this action has not been implemented for the first time. Oil prices did not fall significantly for a while.”
Under this circumstance, Yang An said that whether to allow Iranian crude oil to return to the market has become a very critical option. If the Iranian nuclear agreement achieves a major breakthrough, it will inevitably have a major impact on oil prices. According to previous market agency predictions, Iranian crude oil Returning to the market may bring oil prices back down to US$5-10/barrel. Now, due to the unexpected emergence of the new coronavirus variant “Omicron”, after the oil price plummeted by US$10/barrel in a single day, the need to return Iranian crude oil to the market has become less urgent. This has also made the Iranian nuclear agreement The negotiations have added some uncertainty. “The Iran nuclear agreement has gone through many rounds of negotiations before, and the final failure to reach an agreement is expected, and the impact on oil prices will be limited. On the contrary, if the negotiations on the Iran nuclear agreement achieve a key breakthrough, it will be equivalent to ‘making matters worse’ for oil prices. In the mutant poison Against the background of the deterioration of the epidemic situation and supply and demand, the return of Iranian crude oil to the market will increase the market’s pessimistic expectations for oil prices, and oil prices will most likely continue to fall to seek support.”
“The United States is willing to actively promote Iran nuclear negotiations to suppress oil prices. If the negotiations go smoothly, crude oil prices will be further pressured. If the negotiations fail, crude oil prices will rebound in the short term. In the long term, it depends on the supply and demand of crude oil.” Vice President of R&D Department of Guolian Futures Manager Jia Wanjing said.
Li Yanjie, head of the energy and chemical industry group of CITIC Futures, believes that the prospects for US-Iran negotiations are not clear. “If there are similar descriptions such as ‘smooth’ during or after the negotiation, according to past experience, the increase in negative supply expectations will lead to an increase in the risk of oil prices falling. However, it should be noted that this is more of a release of negative sentiment, because the distance from Iran It will still take some time for oil supply to truly return to the market. If it does not go smoothly, it will most likely be reflected in the withdrawal of the negative risks from the recent US-Iran negotiations.”
At the opening of trading on Monday, Brent and WTI crude oil rebounded sharply, while domestic crude oil futures fell sharply. Yang An believes that the trigger of such extreme market conditions is the new mutant strain “Omicron”. “At the same time as crude oil plummeted, almost no global risk assets were spared, and stock markets, commodities and even digital currencies plummeted. There is currently no more detailed data to fully understand how destructive the mutant strain will be, and the market is placing its hopes on This strain may not be as scary as imagined, so it has rebounded in the short term. However, this trend lacks sustainability and should be regarded more as a technical rebound after a sharp decline. If there are no factors that can boost market confidence,��, the market outlook is most likely not optimistic. ”
Li Yanjie believes that Monday’s rebound is not surprising. “First, the impact of the ‘Omicron’ mutant strain on the epidemic situation itself still needs time to be determined, so there is no need to panic excessively in the short term, and the space below oil prices is also relatively limited; second, as the severe panic was released last Friday, There is a demand for recovery after oversold conditions in the market, coupled with the tight supply situation in the oil market in the fourth quarter, international oil prices started to ‘bottom out’ on Monday.”
Regarding the difference in the rise and fall of domestic and foreign markets, Yang An believes that the main reason is that the settlement time is different. Monday’s external market is a new trading day, while domestic SC crude oil is Friday night market plus Monday’s day market as one settlement day. Therefore, it seems that the domestic market is the same. After a sharp drop, the external market rebounded. In fact, the overall decline of crude oil in the internal and external markets is basically the same, with little difference.
Li Yanjie told reporters that in general, the current situation is that “the new virus strain has triggered market panic and pushed up oil prices in advance.” “This week is a super week for the oil market, and negative risks have the upper hand: First, the Iran nuclear negotiations. If “smooth” and other similar descriptions appear during or after the negotiations, according to past experience, rising negative supply expectations will lead to downward risks for oil prices. Increase. The second is the OPEC+ ministerial meeting held on Saturday. According to the plan, the alliance will increase production by 400,000 barrels per day in January. As demand growth slows down and supply steadily increases, there is a prospect that the supply gap in the oil market will gradually be repaired. It is clear and stable, but the recent release of reserves by consumer countries, the Iranian nuclear negotiations, and the unexpected discovery of the ‘Omicron’ mutant strain make the final outcome of this meeting full of uncertainty.”
Li Yanjie believes that the market outlook will focus on the Iranian nuclear negotiations and the OPEC+ meeting, which are still full of variables. At the same time, we still need to be alert to the cumulative release of negative risks, as well as the emergence of problems such as the epidemic situation worsening beyond expectations and vaccines failing.
Oil prices plummeted, asphalt and PTA were affected
Affected by the recent sharp drop in crude oil prices, it is difficult for asphalt and PTA futures prices to be immune. Zheng Mengqi, an energy researcher at Hizheng Futures, believes that from the cost side, asphalt’s cost side support is weakening. Under the pessimistic mood, futures dealers sold spot goods at low prices. The main refinery of Sinopec in East China planned to lower the price of asphalt, and the mainstream transaction price of asphalt fell. Due to rain and snow in the northern region, project construction demand has shrunk significantly, and asphalt inventories have increased in the northwest and northeast; terminal demand in East, South, and Southwest China has been average. On the supply side, coking profits are still higher than asphalt profits, asphalt operating rates continue to remain low, planned production has dropped significantly year-on-year and month-on-month, and asphalt supply continues to decline.
Li Yanjie believes that under the influence of crude oil prices, weak fundamentals have exacerbated the decline in asphalt prices. “In the later period, based on estimates of the operating rate of asphalt refineries in November, the actual output will still be higher than the production plan. At the same time, fixed asset investment in highway construction showed seasonal weakness in the fourth quarter. It is expected that asphalt as a whole may continue to be weak in the later period.”
Jia Wanjing, deputy general manager of the R&D Department of Guolian Futures, told reporters that crude oil prices fell 13% on November 26, opening up room for PTA to fall. “If the price of PX falls due to the impact of crude oil, and the processing fee of PTA is still above 500 yuan/ton, in terms of absolute prices, PTA still has room to fall. The joint production reduction of polyester companies should mainly focus on reducing filament production. If If the operating rate of polyester staple fiber has dropped significantly, you can consider arbitrage by buying short fiber PTA.”
Li Yanjie said that after the current PTA processing fee is compressed, the impact of raw material costs has increased. Although oil prices rebounded on Monday, they still fell to a certain extent compared with the closing price of last Friday night. This also led to a further increase in PTA futures prices on Monday. fell. “Recently, major polyester factories downstream of PTA have jointly reduced production. While the supply of PTA remains high, PTA will continue to follow the price of raw materials in the short term. In addition to the epidemic in the near future, we need to pay attention to the maintenance of the equipment of major PTA factories after the price drop. .”
Jia Wanjing believes that we need to continue to pay attention to the PTA processing fee situation in the future. “If the PTA processing fee falls below 300 yuan/ton again, it may cause PTA factories to actively reduce production.”
</p
