In the past two trading days, ICE cotton futures and Zheng cotton have fallen sharply. Not only a certain amount of ON-CALL contracts were quickly traded, but the inquiry and contract volume of cargo/bonded cotton such as US cotton, Brazilian cotton, and West African cotton also rebounded significantly. . Considering that the 1% tariff cotton import quota in 2022 is expected to be issued around mid-January, the additional sliding tax cotton import quota issued in 2021 is valid until December 31, and the daily amount of imported cotton from the central reserve has decreased, so some International cotton merchants and cotton trading companies have judged that with the main ICE contract falling below 115 cents/pound, Chinese buyers are expected to place real orders and get goods frequently.
Judging from the bottom prices announced by some private processing enterprises, cotton exporters, and CCI, the spot prices of S-6, J34, etc. in India have fallen sharply recently (the purchase price of seed cotton has also dropped by three levels in a row). On November 30, The bonded 2020/21 Indian cotton M 1-5/32 29GPT basis difference is about 7.5-8 cents/pound; the December shipping date Indian cotton SM 1-5/32 quotation is only 121.70-122.90 cents/pound (2021/ 2022 new cotton), so some domestic cotton-related companies are waiting for the opportunity to sign contracts to purchase Indian cotton in 2020/21 and 2021/22 at low prices.
The author’s opinion is that you still have to wait a while to purchase Indian cotton cargo, and you need to be cautious when placing orders. The reasons are as follows: First, the Indian Textile Association and some cotton mills have recently petitioned the Modi government to ban Indian cotton exports in 2021/22. The policy may There are variables; secondly, from the current point of view, the domestic seed cotton market in India is gradually increasing in volume; coupled with the strong resistance of spinners to high cotton prices, the purchase price and lint price have just begun to decline; thirdly, as of the end of November, all major ports in China, The quantity of 2020/21 and 2019/20 Indian cotton arriving in Hong Kong in November/December is relatively sufficient, and the grade, quality and other indicators are relatively high, which can replace the new cotton in 2021/22; fourth, it is imported from Gujarat, Mabang, etc. Judging from the feedback from local private cotton enterprises, the 2021/22 Indian cotton with a shipping date of December/January generally has a high horse value, a high resurgence, and average or even deviated spinnability and consistency. Most sellers recommend that old customers postpone it to February/March. Shipping schedule; fifth, from the perspective of quotations, Indian cotton in 2021/22 is not competitive enough compared with US cotton and West African cotton, and the price/performance ratio needs to be improved.
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