In November, domestic polyester staple fiber prices almost showed a unilateral decline, with only a short-lived weak rebound in the early part of the second half of the period. According to price testing by SunSirs, the average spot market price of domestic polyester staple fiber on November 30 was 7,185 yuan/ton, down 11.73% from the price at the beginning of the month and up 25.00% year-on-year. In the futures market, the main short fiber futures (2201) closed at 6510 at the end of the month, down 10.53% from the beginning of the month.
The main factors affecting the price of domestic polyester staple fiber in November are: First, the cost has dropped significantly. This month, international crude oil prices fell sharply due to the release of oil reserves by the United States and the impact of the spread of the latest mutated virus strain “Omicron”. At the end of the month, WTI New York crude oil CFD barely closed below 67, with a monthly decline of nearly 20%. Short fiber The prices of raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol fell sharply, with both current and futures prices falling by more than 10%; second, demand was sluggish. Orders in the downstream yarn and weaving markets are still weak. Affected by this, polyester factories also plan to reduce production by 20% in the second half of the year. The third is supply recovery. This month, the domestic power restriction policy has been basically cancelled, short-fiber maintenance equipment has been restarted in the early stage, and construction has picked up. The tight supply and demand situation in the early stage has improved, and the inventory is slowly accumulating. In addition, Xinfengming Zhonglei short fiber equipment has produced products in the middle of this month.
Factors affecting price
In November, domestic PTA prices fluctuated and plummeted. As of November 30, the average domestic spot market price was 4,447 yuan/ton, down 13.21% month-on-month and up 34.35% year-on-year. In the futures market, the main PTA futures price 2201 closed at 4,420 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 14.27% from the beginning of the month. The “cliff-like” plunge in international crude oil prices in November caused the collapse of PTA’s cost-side support. In November, the restart and maintenance of PTA equipment coexisted, and the current industry operating rate is around 80%. As maintenance equipment is gradually restarted, spot supply is sufficient, and the market remains in a state of accumulated inventory.
In November, domestic ethylene glycol prices fell sharply following the trend of coal. As of November 30, the average mixed price of ethylene glycol in North China was 5,241 yuan/ton, down 10.65% from the beginning of the month and up 37.94% year-on-year. In the futures market, the main ethylene glycol futures price 2201 closed at 4863 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 11.28% from the beginning of the month. The decline of ethylene glycol is the main theme this month, and the reason is closely related to the sharp drop in coal prices. The chemical market as a whole has deviated from fundamentals due to early capital manipulation, and excessive fanatical speculation has triggered policy intervention. The market is gradually returning to rationality. Ethylene prices also weakened slightly, putting pressure on the cost side. The performance of terminal demand orders is poor, PTA continues to gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle, and the polyester factory production reduction plan is implemented, but at the same time, some equipment is also undergoing maintenance, and the demand side is intertwined with long and short positions. However, each process of ethylene glycol is currently producing at a loss. If the price continues to decline, it may dampen the enthusiasm of enterprises for production, so the downside space is limited.
In November, domestic pure polyester yarn market quotations were stable and mixed, with overall stability. As of November 30, the average spot market price of 32S polyester yarn in Shandong was around 14,825 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week and up 100 yuan/ton from the price at the beginning of the month (14,725 yuan/ton). According to some market participants, the trading volume has not changed compared with the previous period, and traders have become weak in mentality. The inventory of pure polyester yarn manufacturers continues to increase, and they have a strong mentality of shipping.
Market outlook forecast
At present, the new mutated virus strain “Omicron” will still seriously affect the crude oil market. In addition, with the release of domestic coal production capacity, the cost center of short fiber raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol continues to shift downward. It is expected that polyester short fiber will still show a weak and volatile trend in December. We do not rule out the possibility of a rebound after crude oil stabilizes. Pay attention to raw material prices and changes in terminal demand.
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