Since November, as the raw material PTA has stopped rising, the futures market has fallen sharply, and cost support has weakened, the polyester product market has begun to correct from its high level. After entering December, crude oil collapsed again due to the mutated virus, and the spot market continued to From the current point of view, most varieties of the chemical fiber industry chain have fallen back to the price trend before the price increase.
Along with the plummeting market price of PTA, the profits of the former banknote printing machine PTA were greatly squeezed. In the first half of the year, due to the huge social inventory pressure and the impact of the centralized production of new equipment, PTA processing fees hit the bottom, and the low dropped to 300 yuan/ tons, at this time, the price of acetic acid has risen sharply, equipment maintenance and shutdowns have increased under the pressure of corporate losses, the scope of PTA supply and demand destocking has expanded, and a large number of warehouse receipts have flowed out. Entering the second half of the year, although the social inventory pressure on PTA eased and PTA processing fees recovered moderately, due to the impact of dual control and weak demand, the polyester load hit a low for the year. Starting in September, PTA returned to the inventory accumulation rhythm again. The terminal drags down the supply and demand. In December, PTA continued the accumulation pattern since September. Coupled with the poor macro atmosphere and reduced risk appetite, the center of gravity of market prices may shift downward.
Against this background, PTA processing fees have been compressed. The average PTA processing fee from January to November was only 493 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 18%. The cost of PTA collapsed, and the polyester product market began to experience panic price cuts and shipments. Low prices emerged in the market, and the market center of gravity continued to decline. Polyester yarns have still had significant discounts in the past two days, with the highest promotion being 400 yuan/ton! The current price of polyester filament POY 150D is 7,250 yuan/ton, the price of polyester filament FDY 150D has dropped to 7,450 yuan/ton, and the price of polyester filament DTY 150D has dropped to 8,880 yuan/ton. Some varieties with larger declines have reached 3,000 yuan/ton. Nowadays, the upstream cost support of polyester yarn is no longer supported. Under the situation of high trend uncertainty, downstream pessimism and caution coexist. Moreover, the promotion in the past few days has already covered the position once, so the improvement in production and sales this time is limited. It is expected that polyester filament prices will still decline in the short term.
Polyester factories replace PTA factories as the new money printing press.
Although polyester filament has shown a downward trend since November, the cash flow of polyester filament has not fluctuated significantly due to the simultaneous decrease in raw material prices. The average polymerization cost in November was 5,954 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 11.6%. As shown in the figure below, the cash flow of the three mainstream models of polyester filament fluctuated downwards in the first half of the year, and profits were compressed. At the end of the month, due to the expansion of the decline in raw materials, the cash flow of polyester filament increased slightly. .
Comparison of profits of three mainstream models of domestic polyester filament in 2021
Overall, the average cash flow of POY mainstream models is 653.9 yuan/ton, the average cash flow of FDY mainstream models is 443.67 yuan/ton, and the average cash flow of DTY mainstream models is 559.09 yuan/ton. They all showed slight declines from the previous month, but the current profit level is nearly 5 higher levels in years. Especially since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the cash flow of polyester filament has continued to be compressed. The cash flow of polyester filament has been near the break-even point for most of the year. However, the cash flow of polyester filament has been continuously restored since 2021. In March and October, the cash flow of polyester filament The flow exceeded “thousand” twice. From a full-year perspective, the polyester factory has replaced the PTA factory as the new money printing machine.
</p
