Since October 2019, the average processing profit from PX to PTA has been at a low level for a long time, and many backward and old production capacities have been eliminated. Since more traders have used annual contract reduction agreements this year, due to inventory pressure and production efficiency issues, some major manufacturers have recently announced maintenance plans for December. Currently, the PTA maintenance losses in December are relatively large, so you can pay attention to the actual realization. degree. As of December 3, 2021, the domestic PTA operating load rate was 73.8%, a month-on-month decrease of 9.53%, which was at a low level in the past five years. According to the announced maintenance plan, the PTA output in December is estimated to be about 4.43 million tons.
At the same time, combined with the monthly average PTA production from January to November and the estimated future inventory increment, plus the impact of the Spring Festival holiday on polyester production, the PTA production from January to February 2022 is estimated to be between 4.25 million and 4.45 million tons. It is estimated that some new polyester devices may be delayed in production. There are not many new orders for terminal weaving factories and the load of looms is not high. The weakening trend of demand is a foregone conclusion.
PTA inventory accumulation pattern may continue
As of December 3, 2021, PTA social inventory was 3.344 million tons, an increase of nearly 300,000 tons from the end of October. From the perspective of inventory structure, the inventory of PTA factories and goods in warehouses and ports decreased slightly, the inventory of polyester factories increased slightly, and the inventory of warehouse receipts rebounded significantly. Due to the current low operating rate of polyester, raw material demand has been basically met, and procurement demand has dropped compared with previous years. Due to the relatively large number of PTA maintenance in December, it is expected that supply and demand can be basically balanced, and the inventory accumulation will not be large. In 2022, the weakness in industrial supply and demand will gradually deepen, and PTA’s accumulation of funds will continue.
2022-2023 is still the PTA production cycle
And compared with the growth of polyester production capacity, there is obvious excess
In the long term, PTA is still in the second round of rapid capacity expansion cycle in history from 2022 to 2023, with plans to add 10.8 million tons and 17.5 million tons of new production capacity in 2022 and 2023 respectively. Based on the first round of rapid expansion cycle in history, PTA production capacity increased from 20.06 million tons/year to 43.35 million tons/year between 2011 and 2014, while the price fell sharply, from about 12,000 yuan/ton to less than 5,000 yuan/ton. tons, it is expected that loose supply will continue to suppress prices during this current production expansion cycle.
At the same time, although it is planned to add more than 10 million tons of downstream polyester production capacity in 2022, based on the actual increase in polyester production capacity in the past five years of 3.7-5.3 million tons, it is estimated that the average annual new polyester production capacity in 2022-2023 may be 6.5-7 million tons, which translates into an average annual new PTA demand of 5.56-5.99 million tons. Therefore, even if the increase in non-polyester demand is superimposed, the total demand increase is far lower than the supply increase, and the pressure of PTA overcapacity is intensifying.
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