Judging from feedback from cotton trading companies in Qingdao, Zhangjiagang, Shanghai and other places, bonded and non-bonded cotton stocks at ports continued to decline in November (the amount of foreign cotton entering the warehouse was significantly lower than the amount of outbound cotton). Among them, US cotton, Brazilian cotton, The inventory reduction of West African cotton, Australian cotton, and Central Asian cotton is relatively prominent. Although the rigid demand for Indian cotton is still there, shipments are slower than cotton from other origins. In addition, the current inventory base of Indian cotton at the port is relatively large, so the total inventory The proportion has not only not declined but has continued to rise (the proportion of Indian cotton stocks in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone is even close to 50%).
An international cotton trader said that due to the sharp decline in ICE cotton futures since November 26, the suspension of the second batch of central reserve cotton rotation by relevant departments in 2021, and the low supply of Xinjiang new cotton in 2021/22 with high-grade and high indicators in mainland warehouses (trader , Xinjiang cotton processing enterprises, etc. mostly report “in-transit” prices), and the sliding tax cotton import quota in 2021 is about to expire. Inquiries and purchases of Brazilian cotton have shown a relatively clear recovery, and traders have also quietly raised the basis of US dollar quotations.
Judging from the quotations and estimates of some foreign and large and medium-sized cotton importing enterprises, as of the end of November, cotton stocks in China’s main ports (bonded + non-bonded, including a small amount of inland bonded areas) may be between 260,000 and 280,000 tons (the industry generally judges that it is high It is unlikely to exceed 300,000 tons).
Compared with the stocks in September and October, the downward trend of U.S. cotton and Brazilian cotton stocks is somewhat prominent. Among them, the cotton stocks in Qingdao and the surrounding Jiaozhou Peninsula are about 150,000-170,000 tons; the cotton stocks in Zhangjiagang, Nantong, Nanjing and other ports are about 60,000-70,000 tons. tons (including about 47,000 tons in Zhangjiagang); the total cotton inventory in other ports such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Tianjin, and Guangzhou is about 50,000-70,000 tons (due to limited survey samples and errors in estimation, or some discrepancies with the actual quantity).
Some cotton-related enterprises said that the quantity arriving and warehousing in Hong Kong is expected to be small in December and January, and it is difficult for port stocks to change the weak downward trend. However, considering the US cotton, Indian cotton, Brazilian cotton, African cotton, etc. in January/February/March, Shipments are relatively concentrated, so cotton stocks in China’s main ports will bottom out significantly around the Spring Festival.
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