Last week, the “Omicron” mutant strain further aroused market concerns, coupled with sluggish downstream demand, it also had a certain impact on products in the textile industry chain. Domestic cotton prices rebounded slightly after a sharp fall, and international cotton prices rose sharply. Falling; cotton yarn prices at home and abroad continue to fall; polyester staple fiber prices continue to fall
Many countries have implemented blockade measures, and the global cotton supply and demand has reversed. Many countries around the world quickly implemented blockade measures, and the Federal Reserve said that economic activity in many parts of the United States was limited by supply chain disruptions and labor shortages. In the international cotton market, the supply of cotton in the northern hemisphere has further increased, with 85% of the US cotton harvest completed and more than half of Indian cotton sold. The new mutant strain further dampened market sentiment, with U.S. consumer confidence falling to a nine-month low in November. Last week, US cotton shipments were 16,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 64.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 28.7%.
The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC)’s December global production demand forecast adjusts 2021 consumption to negative growth for the first time. Global cotton consumption in 2021 is expected to decrease by 390,000 tons from the previous period to 25.63 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%; cotton production It increased by 10,000 tons from the previous period to 25.73 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%; the inventory-to-consumption ratio was 79.8%, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%. The implementation of blockade measures in many countries has further clouded the prospects for global cotton consumption and weakened consumer demand for textiles and clothing. The order situation of Southeast Asia’s textile industry, which has just improved, is facing a test. In the short term, market pessimism has enveloped the international cotton market and the international cotton market continues to be under pressure.
The pressure on the cotton textile market continues unabated, so beware of the risk of falling cotton prices. Driven by weakening demand, employment, etc., the manufacturing boom of small and medium-sized enterprises has once again fallen into the contraction zone. China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI in November was 49.9, down 0.7 percentage points from October, and was once again on the line of prosperity and contraction after August. the following.
In the domestic cotton market, more than half of the new cotton is processed, and sales have not improved. A survey by the National Cotton Market Monitoring System shows that the country’s total new cotton output in 2021 is expected to be 5.801 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, of which Xinjiang cotton output is 5.262 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%; last week, 497,000 tons of lint were processed nationwide, a month-on-month decrease 19.2%, with sales of 97,000 tons of lint cotton, a month-on-month decrease of 24.6%. The operating pressure of the downstream textile market continues unabated. The situation of insufficient domestic demand and weak foreign trade orders has not improved. Textile companies have gradually become mainstream in reducing prices and selling funds, exacerbating the continued weakening of profits of textile companies. A few textile companies have issued early holiday notices for the Spring Festival. In the short term, the power of mutated viruses will undermine market confidence, and the operating pressure of cotton textile enterprises will further increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of changes in the external environment on the cotton market.
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