The PTA market in 2021 is in a “thriving” situation overall compared with 2020, with the highest price exceeding 5,500 yuan/ton. However, by mid-November, as international crude oil stopped rising and dragged down by demand, the PTA market price weakened significantly, and After entering December, the PTA market once again had a “rising” trend. As of December 7, the negotiated price in the East China PTA market was 4,590 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.61% from the price at the beginning of the month. The reason for this is that the supply trend Tightening is still the main driving force for the market’s rise:
1. International oil prices once again stand above the US$70/barrel mark, and downstream costs and mentality are supported.
Near the end of November, the discovery of a new variant of the new coronavirus in South Africa triggered market concerns about the demand side. At the same time, the concentrated release of strategic reserves of crude oil by major consuming countries may exacerbate the oversupply situation. Crude oil suffered its largest one-day decline since April 2020. The January futures of U.S. WTI crude oil closed down $10.24 at $68.15 per barrel; as of today, the U.S. and Iran Crude oil prices began to rise due to poor progress in nuclear negotiations and unclear prospects for Iranian crude oil exports. At the same time, concerns about demand for the Omicron variant of the novel coronavirus have eased. In addition, Saudi Arabia raised the official sales price of crude oil supplied to Asia and the United States. Before the deadline, the price of WTI crude oil futures had exceeded US$70/barrel, and the increase in costs has provided strong support to the downstream market.
2. Processing fees are at a low level, and factories are more willing to perform maintenance
Since the beginning of this year, the price of the auxiliary material acetic acid has remained high. At the same time, due to the tight supply of coal and high prices, steam and other expenses have also increased significantly compared with previous years, and the processing cost of the PTA market has increased; and as PX, the direct production raw material of PTA, the equipment is put into production in 2021. Slowly, the second-phase PX unit of East China Dachang was fully put into operation in December, and the increase in supply was less than expected. Driven by the crude oil market, the PX market price improved significantly year-on-year, and the annual production cost of PTA also increased; while in November, the price of PTA continued After weakening, PTA cost changes are relatively limited, industry processing fees are facing a situation of continuous shrinking, and factories are less willing to produce. Many planned maintenance equipment have fulfilled the maintenance plan. At the same time, there are also temporary shutdowns of equipment in East China and Northeast China and new maintenance. Plans emerged and market supply declined.
3. Mainstream suppliers have once again reduced contract supply, while logistics in some areas have been hampered, and the spot market basis continues to strengthen.
Since March, mainstream suppliers have been reducing contract supply operations. One of the mainstream suppliers only supplied 40% of the December contract volume. The spot supply and circulation in the market has been somewhat narrowed. At the same time, it was heard that some holders were oversold in the early stage. , the spot basis began to rise. As of today, due to the sudden impact of the epidemic, Ningbo Zhenhai District is under closed management. The 3.3 million tons/year PTA device of a major Ningbo-bound factory has begun to decline due to obstruction in outbound logistics. At the same time, there is also the possibility of parking in the future. , the spot market atmosphere further improved, and the basis continued to rise.
Market outlook: The current improvement in the PTA market is mainly due to the recovery of the crude oil market and the supply-side benefits brought by the centralized maintenance of equipment. However, the performance of the downstream polyester and terminal markets has always been weak. Some polyester factories have sufficient raw material reserves. For raw material procurement It is mainly to meet rigid demand, and the upward pressure on the PTA market is relatively large; however, there are still plans for PTA equipment to undergo maintenance in the near future, and the benefits on the supply side are expected to be sustainable. The spot basis is likely to remain strong, and the PTA market price will follow the crude oil market. Mainly change. It is expected that the short-term PTA market price will still have some room for upward growth, with the price fluctuation range being 4,500-4,800 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the changes in the start-up of large factories in East China due to the impact of logistics.
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