U.S. API crude oil inventories decreased by 3.089 million barrels in the week to December 3. The latest short-term energy outlook report released by EIA shows that global crude oil demand growth is expected to be 3.55 million barrels per day in 2022, compared with the previous estimate of 3.35 million barrels per day. Global crude oil demand growth in 2021 is expected to be 5.11 million barrels per day, compared with the previous forecast of 5.11 million barrels per day. Total global crude oil consumption is expected to be 96.91 million barrels per day in 2021, compared with the previous forecast of 97.53 million barrels per day. Total global crude oil consumption is expected to be 100.46 million barrels per day in 2022, compared with the previous forecast of 100.88 million barrels per day. As of early morning closing this morning, WTI January crude oil futures closed up $2.56, or 3.68%, at $72.05/barrel; Brent February crude oil futures closed up $2.36, or 3.23%, at $75.44/barrel.
API crude oil inventories decreased by 3.089 million barrels, international oil prices rose more than 3%
The sudden emergence of the mutant COVID-19 strain caught the market off guard. Crude oil prices have experienced significant fluctuations in the past two weeks, with oil prices once experiencing a huge drop of US$10/barrel in a single day. As concerns about the epidemic eased, crude oil prices closed sharply higher for two consecutive days.
In the early hours of this morning, API crude oil inventory data was released. The data showed that API crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 3.089 million barrels in the week to December 3. The latest short-term energy outlook report released by EIA shows that global crude oil demand growth is expected to be 3.55 million barrels per day in 2022, compared with the previous estimate of 3.35 million barrels per day. Global crude oil demand growth in 2021 is expected to be 5.11 million barrels per day, compared with the previous forecast of 5.11 million barrels per day. Total global crude oil consumption is expected to be 96.91 million barrels per day in 2021, compared with the previous forecast of 97.53 million barrels per day. Total global crude oil consumption is expected to be 100.46 million barrels per day in 2022, compared with the previous forecast of 100.88 million barrels per day.
As of early morning closing this morning, WTI January crude oil futures closed up $2.56, or 3.68%, at $72.05/barrel; Brent February crude oil futures closed up $2.36, or 3.23%, at $75.44/barrel.
Driven by the sharp rebound in international oil prices, most domestic chemical products rose yesterday. Boosted by the cost side, PTA’s main contract 2201 rose by more than 2.6% to close at 4,606 yuan/ton. MEG’s main contract 2201 rose by more than 1% and closed at 4,606 yuan/ton. At 4844 yuan/ton, the main short fiber contract 2201 fluctuated sharply during the session. The gains continued to narrow in the afternoon, and finally fell slightly by 0.21%.
Haitong Futures Energy Analyst Yang An believes that there are four main factors affecting the crude oil market recently: First, Biden unites global demand countries to release strategic reserves; second, global market panic due to the interference of the epidemic; third, the market expects OPEC+ can once again transform into a fire-fighting hero; fourth, as the Federal Reserve’s attitude turns to a “hawkish” stance, expectations for a tightening of global liquidity are heating up.
“On the one hand, the rebound of crude oil has driven the price center of the polyester industry chain products upward. The cost end has moved upward, and the prices of PTA, ethylene glycol and short fiber have oscillated and risen. On the other hand, the fundamentals of polyester industry products have improved slightly. PTA factory Under the continued low profits, maintenance increased in December. Fuhua reduced its burden, Hengli maintained maintenance, and Honggang extended the maintenance time. The burden of new materials was reduced due to the impact of logistics. The spot supply was tight, and the domestic basis was significantly strengthened. Short fiber has been affected by the recent decline in inventory. , the price remains strong, and the processing fee has increased slightly.” Liu Siqi, an analyst at Tianfeng Futures, said.
In addition, according to Everbright Futures analyst Zhou Ao, due to epidemic prevention and control requirements, Ningbo City implemented temporary closed management of Zhenhai District from December 7, and launched large-scale nucleic acid monitoring in the entire Zhenhai District. Yisheng New Materials in Zhenhai area The shipment of goods from the 3.6 million-ton PTA plant was affected to a certain extent, and goods shipments were temporarily stagnant. Affected by this news, PTA reduced its position and increased sharply yesterday. Relevant companies are currently coordinating the processing of passes, and the progress is relatively positive. In addition, PTA maintenance equipment has also increased recently. For example, Honggang Petrochemical’s 2.5 million tons, Baihong Petrochemical’s 2.5 million tons, Yadong Petrochemical’s 750,000 tons, Hengli Petrochemical Line 2 all had maintenance in December, and Fuhua’s 4.5 million tons , Yisheng Hua’s 2.25 million tons also fell. The tightening of the supply side changed PTA’s expectation of inventory accumulation in December to the expectation of depletion, driving the PTA spot basis to strengthen.
PTA led the gains in the polyester sector. Founder mid-term futures analyst Zhai Qidi believes that the reversal of supply and demand expectations and tight spot liquidity have supported PTA’s fundamentals. “On the one hand, due to the impact of the polyester self-discipline production reduction plan, the market expected PTA to accumulate in December. However, recently, PTA supply has shrunk more than expected. For example, Honggang Petrochemical’s 2.5 million tons/year PTA unit was delayed to January due to accessories issues. After restarting in the first ten days of the year, the 3.6 million tons/year PTA unit of Yisheng New Materials has been reduced to around 70% in the short term. The accumulated PTA inventory in December is expected to be depleted. On the other hand, a major supplier’s December contract is based on 40% supply. , coupled with the loss of output from the aforementioned devices, the liquidity in the spot market is tight, traders are reluctant to sell, and the basis changes from discount to premium.” She said.
“Considering the current high level of maintenance on the PTA supply side, the PTA market will face a destocking pattern in December.” Liu Siqi said that in December, due to the increase in maintenance of long-term low-profit PTA devices, in addition to the planned maintenance of Yadong, Baihong, and Ineos , Fuhai Chuang fell negative, Honggang IIThe restart of the scheduled period has been postponed, and Hengli Line 2 is scheduled for maintenance. Yesterday, Yisheng New Materials was reducing its logistics load due to the impact of the epidemic, with more than 10 million tons of equipment undergoing unplanned maintenance and load reduction. The supply side has contracted significantly, and the demand side of major polyester manufacturers has jointly reduced the negative to about 85%.
From the perspective of polyester and downstream demand, Liu Siqi said that the current performance is average. The peak season orders for domestic demand have basically passed, and orders for external demand have been placed one after another. However, raw materials have plummeted in the early stage, orders are placed cautiously, and the overall order performance is average. As the enthusiasm for downstream purchasing of polyester is not high, the inventory pressure of polyester yarn is relatively high, and joint production is currently being reduced.
“Ningbo has a polyester production capacity of 1.77 million tons, and there is no polyester device in the Zhenhai area. However, considering the logistics restrictions that may be caused by the epidemic, Ningbo polyester factories yesterday chose preferential profit promotions to reduce inventory pressure. Overall polyester, With the continuous implementation of production cuts, the polyester load has dropped to around 85%, the short-term increase in new terminal orders is limited, the polyester and weaving end inventory pressure is relatively high, and the demand for polyester yarn in the later period still shows a seasonal weakening phenomenon.” Zhou Ao explain.
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