Introduction: The central bank issued an announcement on the 6th. In order to support the development of the real economy and promote the steady decline of comprehensive financing costs, it decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15 this year (excluding the 5% deposit reserve ratio that has been implemented rate of financial institutions). After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.4%. The central bank stated that this RRR cut is a comprehensive RRR cut and will release approximately 1.2 trillion yuan in long-term funds. The purpose is to strengthen cross-cyclical adjustments, optimize the capital structure of financial institutions, enhance financial service capabilities, and better support the real economy.
The central bank’s RRR cut can increase market activity and benefit the development of the real economy and upstream and downstream industries. The recent rise in crude oil prices has led to a rise in futures, and ethylene glycol is also in a volatile and high opening situation, and downstream demand may also be alleviated. .
Table downstream polyester cost and profit price comparison (unit: yuan/ton)
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
The price of ethylene glycol has been in a volatile trend this year, and the price difference between the high and low ends is large. The high price reached 7025-7035 yuan/ton, while the low price was 4395-4405 yuan/ton. The price difference was as high as 2630 yuan/ton. The average price is 5,275 yuan/ton. The average annual price of downstream slices is 6207.68 yuan/ton, the average annual price of bottle flakes is 6780.41 yuan/ton, the annual average price of filament is 7450.11 yuan/ton, and the average annual price of short-term is 7018.83 yuan/ton. Downstream profits are all positive, but overall profits are relatively low. Compared to last year, only filament yarn has increased, with an increase of 559.71%. The rest have declined year-on-year. However, this year’s peak season is not prosperous, and the off-season atmosphere has been even weaker. leading the polyester market.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
From the perspective of port inventory, ethylene glycol inventory has been at a low level during the year. Although ethylene glycol inventory has been accumulated recently, the inventory has exceeded 600,000 tons, and the shipment volume has also remained around 9,000 tons, and there has been no decrease in subsequent arrivals at the port. Intention, in the face of the commissioning of new devices, supply pressure is increasing, and the central bank’s RRR cut will see most funds flow into the market, boosting capital confidence, which can stimulate futures prices in the short term, and the futures market has also shown a certain rise recently. Although demand is expected to improve, it is limited by the withdrawal of funds at the end of the year. Although ethylene glycol prices may rise, the extent may be limited, and the high may reach around 5,000-5,200 yuan/ton. Operations are still based on caution.
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