In early December, the seed cotton sales in northern Xinjiang have basically ended, with only a few ginners still purchasing sporadic purchases. The sales progress of machine-picked cotton and hand-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang has exceeded 85%, and is expected to be completed before the end of December. .
According to the author’s recent survey of some machine-picked cotton farmers in Xinjiang, the average income per mu of cotton planted in northern Xinjiang is generally 100-200 yuan higher than that in southern Xinjiang because the selling price of seed cotton is slightly higher and is concentrated before late November. If we look at the situation, the net income per mu of farmers’ own cultivated land generally reaches 1,500 to more than 2,000 yuan; the net income of contracted land (contracting fees in 2021 is about 800-1,000 yuan/mu) is concentrated in 1,000 to 1,500 yuan. There is no doubt that in 2021, without direct subsidies from the Xinjiang cotton target price, farmers’ income from cotton planting will be significantly higher than that from corn, wheat and other grain and cash crops, and the price comparison benefits are more prominent than in the previous two years.
Judging from the survey, most farmers have a strong willingness to adjust their planting structure in 2022. The trend of reducing grain and increasing cotton has emerged. The rebound of cotton planting area is expected to be unstoppable. However, the author believes that the possibility of substantial year-on-year growth is not high. The main reasons are: The following points are as follows:
First of all, farmland contract fees in Xinjiang will continue to rise sharply in 2022. Some mainland and Xinjiang contractors are increasingly worried and may “back off.” Due to the high income from cotton planting in 2021, the farmland contracting fee in some cotton areas in Xinjiang has currently risen to 1,500-1,700 yuan/mu (up again by about 500 yuan/mu from 2021), and the industry predicts that it may rise before and after the Spring Festival.
Secondly, Xinjiang’s agricultural department and various prefectures have drawn a “red line” for the grain planting area (the grain planting area will be no less than 33 million acres in 2021), resolutely curb the “non-agriculturalization” of cultivated land, prevent “non-grainification”, and ensure Absolutely safe. Therefore, the role of government guidance and supervision cannot be underestimated regarding the agricultural product planting structure.
Finally, various factors such as low precipitation in Xinjiang, low reservoir reserves, and relevant departments’ further strengthening of water resources protection and management in 2022 restrict the extensive and inefficient development of cotton planting in southern Xinjiang. In early September, in order to thoroughly implement the strictest water resources management system, strengthen rigid constraints on water resources, further strengthen water resources protection and management, and promote the transformation of water use methods from extensive and inefficient to conservation and intensive, the General Office of the People’s Government of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region issued the “About Implementation Opinions on Further Strengthening Water Resources Protection and Management”. Therefore, water control issues will also affect the cotton planting area next year.
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