Recently, the PTA market has begun to rebound after experiencing a sharp decline. On the one hand, international crude oil has experienced a surge, providing strong support from the cost side; on the other hand, the epidemic in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has continued to ferment, causing the PTA supply side to decline again. As of December 9, the price of PTA closed at 4,688 yuan/ton.
Brent oil prices rose 8.50%
In the early stage, due to the outbreak of the “Omicron” epidemic, international crude oil prices fell sharply. Although the “Omicron strain” is spreading rapidly recently, it has not led to an increase in hospitalization rates. Market concerns that the Omicron mutant strain may suppress demand have further eased. After the panic dissipated, international crude oil prices also experienced a sharp rebound. . As of December 8, NYMEX crude oil futures contract 01 contract 72.36 increased by 6.1 US dollars per barrel or 9.21% from the price on December 3; ICE Brent oil futures contract 02 contract 75.82 increased by 5.94 US dollars per barrel or 8.50% from the price on December 3.
About 200,000 tons were destocked in December, exceeding expectations
Recently, unexpected fluctuations in PTA equipment have increased. Honggang Petrochemical originally planned to perform maintenance for 10 days, but now the restart has been postponed to around mid-January. In addition, Jiangsu and Zhejiang are affected by the epidemic, and some areas have entered blockade control, causing many inconveniences in transportation. Among them, Yisheng New Materials The load of the PTA device has been reduced to about 30%, and the market has seen concentrated replenishment in phases, and the basis has strengthened slightly. With the significant reduction in the supply side of PTA, the intensity of destocking in December may exceed expectations.
Since December, Fujian Baihong and Yadong Petrochemical have stopped for maintenance, and the load of Yisheng Petrochemical has dropped; Zhuhai BP1.1 million tons is expected to be overhauled, and Hengli Petrochemical Line 2 has also released news of maintenance. Although some industry players are still holding on to this There is a wait-and-see attitude, but due to an unexpected increase in maintenance equipment, PTA output shrank significantly in December. According to estimates from Longzhong Information, PTA output may drop to 4.22 million tons in December, and destocking efforts may reach around 200,000 tons.
Maintenance and restart of downstream polyester equipment coexist. Although there are many sets of early production reductions, the load gradually increases after the restart of the maintenance equipment, such as Hengke, Jinlun, Huaya, Sanfang, etc. However, mainstream polyester manufacturers, such as Hengyi, Tongkun, Tiansheng, etc., have reduced production and conducted maintenance. Under the collision between restart and maintenance, the polyester load has not dropped significantly, and the demand for PTA is still relatively optimistic. The comprehensive load of polyester in December is expected to be around 84%, with output around 4.8 million tons.
List of recent PTA equipment maintenance
Source: Longzhong Information
Taken together, the rebound in international oil prices supports market sentiment. At the same time, PTA’s own supply is declining, and PTA supply and demand are destocking. Therefore, it is expected that in the short term, under the favorable support of both PTA costs and supply and demand, prices may be relatively volatile. However, considering the persistence of terminal orders, If it is not good, it may restrict the room for price increase of PTA.
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