The RMB exchange rate plummeted, in the morning6.33, in the evening it was6.37! ! Foreign trade people, is there any help?
The RMB exchange rate has appreciated too much recently.On the evening of September 9, the central bank took action to cool down the situation and it plummeted!
In addition, 20 a big lithium battery stock was suddenly investigated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission!
The foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio was raised to9% On the evening of September , according to the People’s Bank of China12 month9 According to news on September 9, in order to strengthen the foreign exchange liquidity management of financial institutions, the People’s Bank of China decided to span>DecemberMonth15 will increase the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions22 percentage points, that is, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio will be increased from the current 7% to 9%.
As soon as the news came out, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates plummeted. The offshore RMB fell below the 6.36 mark against the US dollar, and fell by more than 300 basis points in the short term.
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Second, since last year, the investment and safe-haven properties of RMB have been continuously highlighted. As China’s financial market has become more open, foreign investors have continued to increase their holdings of RMB stocks and bond assets, especially with the emergence of new overseas mutant strains. The risk aversion sentiment in the market has increased, and the RMB has gained more favor.
Third, overseas inflation is high, while my country’s inflation remains at a low level. From a purchasing power parity perspective, this also boosts the RMB to a certain extent.
Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst at Huachuang Securities, said that there are two factors that drive the RMB exchange rate to strengthen against the trend and deserve attention.
First, the recent spot trading volume of RMB against the US dollar has increased significantly, and trading sentiment has boosted the exchange rate.
Second, due to the widening trade surplus and the simultaneous increase in banks’ foreign-related receipts and payments on behalf of customers, the increasing willingness of enterprises to settle foreign exchange has led to a stronger demand for banks to settle foreign exchange on behalf of customers.
Everbright Securities believes that since the epidemic, the force that has boosted the strong rise in the RMB exchange rate mainly comes from three aspects: First, the uneven impact of the epidemic on the United States and Europe has pushed the U.S. dollar index downward; second, my country’s continued strong exports The growth rate has promoted the expansion of the trade surplus, which in turn has driven the gap between banks’ foreign exchange settlement and sales to widen. Third, under the influence of the epidemic, the degree of monetary easing in the United States has been stronger than that at home, resulting in Sino-US interest rate differentials widening to historical highs and excessive US dollar liquidity.
In addition to these, the reasons for the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate also include the continued positive surplus of all banks’ foreign exchange settlement and sales, the short-term tightness of RMB liquidity among domestic banks, the decline in market expectations for the central bank to cut the reserve requirement ratio, and the easing of Sino-US relations, which has improved the market Risk preferences, etc.
Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, said:
my country’s current account has been in surplus year after year, and the international capital flow situation is improving. Amid the COVID-19 epidemic, my country’s economic stability and strong export competitiveness support the RMB exchange rate.
Ming Ming, chief analyst of CITIC Securities Fixed Income, believes that investor confidence and risk appetite in the foreign exchange market have improved, and the attractiveness of RMB assets has increased, which has provided support for the RMB exchange rate.
Xie Yaxuan, chief macro analyst of China Merchants Securities, said:
The inflow of international capital changes the supply and demand situation of foreign exchange and promotes the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate.
Regarding the future trend of the RMB, professionals have pointed out that while the RMB exchange rate is strengthening, the motivations for the depreciation and correction of the exchange rate are also accumulating.
Everbright Securities believes that the three factors that drove the RMB exchange rate upward in the early stage have begun to show signs of differentiation. The U.S. dollar index has shown a stabilizing and rebounding trend. There is a high probability that my country’s export growth will continue its downward trend, and the degree of monetary easing between China and the United States will tend to convergence. Therefore, the probability of the RMB exchange rate rising further is low, but the probability of a sharp decline in the short term is also low. It is expected that the RMB exchange rate (US dollar to RMB), which has entered the peaking stage, may maintain two-way fluctuations in the range of 6.3-6.7 in the later period.
Zhang Yu of Huachuang Securities believes that a major turning point for the RMB exchange rate is forming: the continued strengthening of the RMB exchange rate after the epidemic may be coming to an end, and the RMB exchange rate will be easy to depreciate but difficult to rise next year.
According to Zhang Yu’s explanation, the current RMB exchange rate needs to focus on the following three aspects of depreciation risks:First, the new 5 US dollars early next year The convenient exchange quota for domestic residents has been refreshed. From a historical perspective, this will cause certain seasonal depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate.
Second, the Fed’s attitude has gradually turned hawkish, starting a monetary policy tightening cycle, and federal funds futures are already pricing2022 year77 span>The interest rate was raised for the first time in March; at the same time, the difference in economic growth between China and the United States is narrowing. Next year, the difference in actual GDP growth between China and the United States may narrow to The smallest since 1989. In the three rounds of economic and currency divergence between China and the United States in history, the RMB’s fall tended to depreciate.
Third, the support of capital inflows to the RMB exchange rate in 2022 is also weakening. As the Federal Reserve enters a tightening cycle, emerging market economies such as China already have capital. Risks of outflows and falling asset prices.
The exchange rate has really plummeted in the past few days, and foreign trade people are calling for help! Tears ran!
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