Judging from the main factors currently affecting the trend of crude oil, Huang Liunan, a senior researcher at Guotai Junan Futures, said in an interview with reporters that the spread of the Omicron mutant strain and the surge in the number of new cases in many overseas countries have corrected the market demand for crude oil. Anticipation of recovery. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s statement of accelerating the Taper rate and even raising interest rates ahead of schedule continued the market’s confirmation of the tightening cycle, thus limiting the rebound in oil prices last week.
According to Li Jie, an energy and chemical researcher at CCB Futures, judging from the December reports released by OPEC and IEA last week, crude oil supply and demand expectations have been adjusted, and weakening demand in the future is still the main negative factor for the crude oil market.
“Judging from the monthly reports of the three institutions, only OPEC currently holds a relatively optimistic view on the impact of the new variant strain, believing that the demand affected in the fourth quarter of this year will be replenished in the first quarter of next year, while both the IEA and EIA are affected by Omicron At the same time, demand expectations have been significantly lowered. It is expected that after the balance sheet adjustment, inventories will increase across the board in the four quarters of 2021, which will significantly suppress oil prices. Overall, in the absence of further positive support, oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Lord.” Li Jie said.
Looking at the performance of the crude oil market this week, Huang Liunan believes that the crude oil market may continue to revise the expected difference around the two major negative factors of the epidemic and tightening liquidity, and temporarily show a weak oscillation trend. Among them, as time goes by, discussions on the impact of mutated strains should not be over-interpreted until a new unexpected outbreak occurs, as there is a possibility of exhausting all the negative news. It is almost difficult to change the expectation of tighter liquidity until the end of the Federal Reserve Taper in March next year. This is also the most important factor restricting the strength of oil prices. However, the market has already produced downward expectations for the number of mid- to long-term interest rate hikes, or has slightly revised the previous period. Pessimistic expectations. Therefore, from a macro perspective, the probability of oil prices maintaining a weak oscillation in the short term is temporarily greater.
Returning to the fundamentals of crude oil, Huang Liunan believes that the monthly spread of external crude oil has continued to weaken in the past two weeks, reflecting the expected decline. But at the same time, the crack price difference between the United States and Europe has been in the process of expansion in the past week. The decline in various inventory indicators and the rebound in global crude oil trade volume also mean that the supply and demand side of crude oil is still good. With the support of actual demand, oil prices have continued to expand. The decline may not be too smooth for the time being. In addition, from a geopolitical point of view, the Iranian nuclear negotiations have been fruitless in the past week. It is recommended to pay close attention to the next round of negotiations. After all, in 2022, when supply and demand tend to be balanced, the supply increase of Iranian crude oil will be 400,000-500,000 barrels per day. It will also cause significant marginal negative effects on the global crude oil market.
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