On December 28, driven by US cotton ICE, Zheng cotton rebounded sharply. The CF2205 contract stood at the important mark of 20,000. This important mark changed from the previous pressure position to a support level, which seemed to ignite the happiness of many people again. expected. This market rise will definitely lead to various interpretations by market analysts and commentators.
The author believes that the rise on the 28th was entirely caused by the external market. As for the sudden large increase in the external market, professionals who have been paying attention to foreign cotton for a long time believe that the rise in the US stock market and oil prices has driven the price of ICE cotton futures. At the same time, the market is generally optimistic about the economic recovery. According to statistics from relevant agency reports, due to the over-issuance of currency, compared with the Christmas holiday in 2020, U.S. retail sales this year increased by 8.5% year-on-year after excluding car sales, a surge of 11% compared with the same period in 2019. In addition, online sales this year accounted for 20.9% of total retail sales, which was only 14.6% in 2019.
Although the global spread of the Omicron virus is severe, it does not seem to have deterred consumers’ enthusiasm. The continued growth of U.S. consumption data has also allowed the outside world to see the resilience of its economic development. Although the Christmas consumption data is impressive, it does not mean that the U.S. retail industry will usher in a recovery. According to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.3% month-on-month in November, while October’s month-on-month growth was 1.8%. Therefore, it is still doubtful whether the high opening of US cotton after the holiday can be sustained.
The fundamentals of the domestic cotton market are still in a weak position. Downstream production and sales are blocked, price transmission is poor, and enterprise operating rates are declining, all of which have put pressure on future consumption. In the short term, there are still no substantial positive factors. Relying solely on U.S. cotton Driven by this, the continued rise lacked momentum. On the 28th, the market closed down more than 100 points, showing that it has no stamina. At this stage, companies are still focusing on risk control, and it is not easy to be overly bullish or bearish.
On December 28, driven by US cotton ICE, Zheng cotton rebounded sharply. The CF2205 contract stood at the important mark of 20,000. This important mark changed from the previous pressure position to a support level, which seemed to ignite the happiness of many people again. expected. This market rise will definitely lead to various interpretations by market analysts and commentators. The author believes that today’s rise is entirely caused by the external market. As for the sudden large increase in the external market, professionals who have been paying attention to foreign cotton for a long time believe that the rise in the US stock market and oil prices has driven the price of ICE cotton futures. At the same time, the market is generally optimistic about the economic recovery. According to statistics from relevant agency reports, due to the over-issuance of currency, compared with the Christmas holiday in 2020, U.S. retail sales this year increased by 8.5% year-on-year after excluding car sales, a surge of 11% compared with the same period in 2019. In addition, online sales this year accounted for 20.9% of total retail sales, which was only 14.6% in 2019. Although the global spread of the Omicron virus is severe, it does not seem to have deterred consumers’ enthusiasm. The continued growth of U.S. consumption data has also allowed the outside world to see the resilience of its economic development. Although the Christmas consumption data is impressive, it does not mean that the U.S. retail industry will usher in a recovery. According to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.3% month-on-month in November, while October’s month-on-month growth was 1.8%. Therefore, it is still doubtful whether the high opening of US cotton after the holiday can be sustained. The fundamentals of the domestic cotton market are still in a weak position. Downstream production and sales are blocked, price transmission is poor, and enterprise operating rates are declining, all of which have put pressure on future consumption. In the short term, there are still no substantial positive factors. Relying solely on U.S. cotton Driven by this, the continued rise lacks momentum. Today’s market closed down more than 100 points, showing lack of stamina. At this stage, companies are still focusing on risk control, and it is not easy to be overly bullish or bearish.
