Introduction: On December 28, the cost end of polyester filament yarns operated warmly due to the synchronization of international crude oil and PTA. However, as the Spring Festival is approaching, downstream weaving is already preparing for the Spring Festival holiday, and there are advance expectations for the shutdown and holiday. Under the current situation of relatively warm costs and weak demand, polyester filament is currently running at a stalemate. Will the market outlook rise or fall?
Recently, at the end of the month, polyester filament has once again been on “price increase promotion”! Price increases are synchronized with promotions, which seems to have become a new shipping model for filament factories. This price increase is mainly supported by the strong international crude oil and warm PTA operation, while the promotion is due to the fact that downstream weaving orders are coming to an end, and the weaving factories have parking plans for the Spring Festival. They have all been put on the agenda, and some downstream companies have successively reduced production and burden. Cost and demand are competing. The polyester filament market is in a stalemate. The Spring Festival is approaching. Whether the market will rise or fall, we will analyze it below.
price profit
According to Longzhong Information statistics, polymerization costs showed an upward trend during the month, while the mainstream market price of polyester filament showed a downward trend. The price difference between polyester filament and polymerization costs gradually expanded, and profits were rapidly squeezed.
Cost side
Recently, international crude oil has continued its upward trend, supporting the strong operation of polyester’s main raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol. Among them, the main raw material PTA has continued to be written off in recent days. The spot performance is strong, and PTA continues to rise. However, the expected load reduction for polyester and terminal weaving during the Spring Festival may restrict its continued upside.
Supply side
Overall, the supply of polyester filament continued to increase during the year. The polyester production capacity during the year was 4.1 million tons/year, of which polyester filament was 2.67 million tons/year, accounting for 65.12%. The polyester filament production capacity increased by 8.21%. Specifically, production capacity deployment is mainly concentrated in the second half of the year, but due to the impact of the national dual-control policy from August to October, there is a blank period in polyester filament production capacity, and the growth rate of supply slows down. However, the total supply is still increasing.
demand side
As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream weaving demand continues to be poor, and some weaving factories are expected to reduce their load in advance. Weaving factories have begun to return home one after another during the week, and the start-up of looms is showing a downward trend. At present, there are only a few domestic orders left to replenish orders and orders for next spring. The quantity is limited, and it seems that the weakening demand before the year is a foregone conclusion.
Summarize
With strong cost support and weakening demand a foregone conclusion, polyester filament needs to pay more attention to its own fundamental data. As we all know, the load of direct spinning factories during the Spring Festival is higher than that of looms, so polyester filament factories are expected to accumulate inventory from January to February. According to market understanding, the inventory of some polyester filament factories is already at a high level. As the Spring Festival approaches, it is not ruled out that factories or suitable machines will use it. Price is exchanged for volume. At this time, polyester filament may be dragged down by demand in the game of cost and demand, showing a downward trend in shock.
</p
