According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic spandex market has accelerated its downward trend since November. As of December 30, the average market price was 63,800 yuan/ton, down 20.84% from the beginning of November and up 54.11% year-on-year. At present, the spandex factory has sufficient supply, and the start-up has dropped slightly to 8.70%. The price center of gravity is still weak, and most mainstream manufacturers choose to give up profits and sell goods, with prices falling by 1,000-3,000 yuan/ton every week. However, downstream buying intentions are weak and actual transactions are slow.
The three major spandex giants have gradually released new production capacity. As of August 31, the second phase of the differentiated spandex project with an annual output of 100,000 tons invested and constructed by Chongqing Spandex has entered the commissioning stage. In December, the first phase of Xinxiang Hua Construction’s annual output of 100,000 tons of high-quality ultra-fine denier spandex fiber project was fully started. Hyosung Spandex (Ningxia)’s annual output of 360,000 tons of spandex and its raw material supporting projects will be constructed in five phases in principle. The main body of the current phase one project was also completed and put into production on December 22.
The PTMEG market consolidation is maintained, the price of upstream BDO is slightly loose, and the cost support is weakening. In terms of price, mainstream factories for 1800 molecular weight supply are offering around 47,000-49,000 yuan/ton, and actual order negotiations are based on 47,000-48,000 yuan/ton. The pure MDI industry has started operations at 5.1%. The start-up is low and stable. The overall supply of manufacturers has tightened slightly. Traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. The pure MDI market has stopped falling and rebounded. The mainstream reference price in the market is 20,500-21,000 yuan/ton by wire transfer in barrels. .
Most downstream customers are cautious in purchasing under the mood of “buying up, not buying down”. In addition, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the terminal market gradually enters holiday mode, and construction starts further decline. Among them, market transactions in Xiaoshao area are average, with circular knitting machines and wrapped yarns operating at 40-60%; Jiangsu area is at a low level, with circular knitting machines and wrapped yarns operating at 40%-60%. Demand in Guangdong is slow to follow, with circular knitting machines The operating level of the , covered yarn and warp knitting markets is between 50% and 70%.
In the textile industry, according to the SunSirs Textile Index, the textile index was 1,013 points on December 29, down 80 points from 1,093 points on November 1, and 12.37% lower than the highest point in the cycle of 1,156 points (2018-09-03). It increased by 48.75% from the lowest point of 681 points on August 13, 2020. (Note: The period refers to 2011-12-01 to the present)
In terms of exports, according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs of China, in November 2021, my country’s textile and apparel exports were US$28.659 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.55% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.96%. Among them, the export value of clothing (including clothing and clothing accessories) was US$15.414 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.82%, and a month-on-month decrease of 6.22%.
From January to November 2021, my country’s cumulative export volume of textiles and clothing was US$285.286 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.70%, of which the cumulative export volume of textiles was US$130.933 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.47%; the cumulative export volume of clothing was US$154.353 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.09% %.
SunSirs analysts believe that the cost-end support still exists, the supply of spandex is sufficient, and new production capacity continues to be released. However, the current terminal textile market conditions are light, the overall downward trend in construction starts has become increasingly obvious, and supply and demand pressures have increased.
Taken together, changes in the demand side are the most critical factor affecting the trend of spandex. We still need to pay attention to the follow-up of domestic and foreign orders in the future. With the abundant supply of spandex, if the demand side is difficult to improve, it is expected that the price of spandex will still be under pressure. .
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