Ethylene glycol supply is generally loose in 2022, and the price may further drop to4000yuan/Tons or less. However, since 202110 months, the price of ethylene glycol has fallen sharply,The downward pace may slow down in 2022.
Crude oil prices are in a downward channel
Currently, the COVID-19 epidemic still has a large negative impact on oil prices. On the macro front, the International Monetary Fund maintains its global economic growth forecast for 2022 at 4.9% unchanged, predicting Inflation rates in developed economies are expected to rise to 2.8% in 2021 and to 2022The annual inflation rate is expected to fall back to 2.3%. At present, the Federal Reserve has changed its dovish stance, and the European and British central banks are also in a state of marginal tightening. Although the tightening of monetary policy will not necessarily lead to a tightening of global liquidity, as the global economy further recovers, controlling inflation will become an important task for most governments. From a liquidity perspective, the driving force behind the surge in commodity prices has gradually faded.
In terms of public health, 2021 The epidemic will have a negative impact on manufacturing activities in some countries. Although the market believes that the impact of the epidemic has weakened with the advancement of vaccination, the actual impact on investor sentiment is still large, and the negative impact on oil prices is strong.
The increase in supply is likely to exceed demand, and the crude oil market will once again face the pressure of oversupply. From the supply side, 2021year12monthOPEC The monthly meeting will continue next year1month40 million barrels/The daily production increase plan remains unchanged, and currentlyOPEC+ is in2022 year1On the basis of continuing to increase production in January, there are still 340 million barrels/ Japan’s production cuts will resume next year. That is,2022year4monthOPEC+ crude oil production The benchmark will be raised by 163 million barrels/ day compared to the current baseline, combined with the potential impact of the return of Iranian production15010,000 barrels/ The increase is about 150 days and the total release by the United States and many countries before this 6,600 strategic crude oil reserves. Overall, the potential supply increase in the crude oil market in 2022 is 500 million ―700ten thousand barrels/day.
From the demand side, IEA released the “2021Global Energy Outlook” predicts that the growth rate of global crude oil demand will reach 3.3% in 2022, and demand will increase30010,000—40010,000 barrels/ day. EIAThe latest “Short-term Energy Outlook” also shows that entering 2022 the growth rate of crude oil demand will be lower than that of supply growth rate, the crude oil market will once again face the pressure of oversupply.
The net long positions of crude oil funds are on a downward trend, and the far-month spread is at a discount. As an important indicator for monitoring market sentiment, fund holdings can often reflect the overall sentiment of the current market. Currently, the fund’s net long allocation of Brent and WTI crude oil has begun to decrease. . As of2021year12 month14 day This week, Brent crude oil futures funds had a net long position of 15.44 million, and WTI crude oil futures funds had a net long position. 34.71Ten thousand sheets, starting from 202110 It has continued to decline since the beginning of the month. At the same time, from the perspective of disk prices, the monthly price differences between WTI and Brent both show a premium structure, with the far month2301The contract price has been as low as 65-70USD/ barrels. There is strong bearish sentiment in the crude oil market.
In general, the driving force for rising commodity prices at the macro level will gradually fade, and 2022 crude oil supply and demand will be loose. There is a high probability that the increase in supply will exceed the increase in demand, and short-term market sentiment is relatively weak. We still maintain the judgment that crude oil is in a downward trend, and its support for the price of downstream energy and chemical products has weakened.
Ethylene glycol supply will be relaxed in 2022
The operating rate of domestic coal-to-ethylene glycol units has rebounded significantly, and the supply side will continue to operate under pressure. Supply side�Decreased significantly. 9-11The monthly weaving order index was at a low level for the same period in previous years.
The growth of terminal consumption has slowed down, and the support for chemical fiber demand has weakened. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the cumulative sales of clothing, footwear and hats in 2021 year1-11 months1.24Trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase14.9%;2021 Total retail sales of consumer goods in November was 4.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase 3.9%, of which the sales of clothing, footwear and hats were 148.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, and has been declining year-on-year for 4 consecutive months, and consumption growth has slowed down. In terms of online product retail, 20211-11 monthly online product and service sales increased year-on-year span>15.4%. The cumulative year-on-year growth of online retail sales of physical goods was 13.2%. Due to the year’s “Double11″ event has been advanced to 2021The annualOctober starts, and there are more promotional holidays throughout the year. Sales are diverted and promotions are normalized, resulting in“Double11” Decreased appeal. 2021Year11Month“Wear span>” category retail sales increased by 11.1% year-on-year. Retail sales maintained double-digit growth, but the growth rate has also continued for several months. Slow down. Generally speaking, the growth of textile and clothing terminal consumption has slowed down, and the support for chemical fiber demand has weakened.
Downstream polyester and terminal weaving links continue to accumulate inventories. As of 2021December, the inventory days of yarn and gray fabric are 25.36 respectively Tianhe31.89days. Since the second half of 2021, yarn and gray fabric inventories have accumulated rapidly, from a low of 8 to 9 days Inventory levels increased approximately 3 times. At the same time, as of October 2021, textile industry inventories have increased by 10.3% year-on-year. Inventories in the textile, clothing and apparel industry increased 8% year-on-year, and continued 5 It showed an upward trend every month and the growth rate accelerated. At present, downstream and terminal inventories are still in the passive accumulation stage and are already at high historical inventory levels. Under the premise of poor consumption, we believe that the downstream industry chain may shift to the active destocking stage, putting downward pressure on polyester prices.
The fundamentals of the ethylene glycol industry are weak
From the supply side, 2022Ethylene glycol and PTA The growth rate of production capacity is greater than the growth rate of polyester production capacity, and the mismatch in production capacity growth rate is more obvious. 2022Year1-2Monthly ethylene glycol production may break through historical highs, and ethylene glycol may continue to face a surplus situation.
In addition, in terms of coal-to-coal production equipment, with the decline in coal prices, more equipment has increased load operation, the operating rate of coal-to-ethylene glycol equipment has further rebounded, and the domestic supply side continues to operate under pressure. In terms of imports, there will be more maintenance of overseas installations in 2021. As overseas installations gradually return to normal in 2022, B The import volume of glycol will also rise accordingly, creating incremental pressure on the supply side.
From the demand side, the demand in the downstream of the polyester industry chain is weak and difficult to change, and the operating rate of looms continues to decline and is at a low level in recent years; as the domestic epidemic prevention pressure increases and the Spring Festival holiday is superimposed, the market Risk aversion increased and orders performed poorly. The growth of terminal consumption has slowed down, inventories have continued to accumulate for several months, and the overall support for raw material demand has weakened.
In general, Ethylene glycol supply in 2022 is relatively loose, and the price may further drop to 4000 Yuan/tons or less, but 2021 Ethylene glycol prices have fallen sharply since October, and the downward trend may slow down in 2022.
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