Since December,PTA the market as a whole has shown an upward trend in shock, and market prices have risen. As of the close of Wednesday, PTA The main futures contract closed up 2.11% at 5138yuan/ tons, the intraday highest rose to 5226 yuan/ tons. From a long-term perspective, in the past 11 trading days, the PTA main contract 9 closed positive, 5the daily intraday high5226higher12Month21The intraday low4528 has risen by about 15.42%.
Recently we learned that Fuhai Chuang450 million tons/ yearPTAThe equipment will be inspected on133weeks, will the market make waves again? As the Spring Festival approaches, terminal companies are facing production cuts and shutdowns, but the cost side is relatively strong. Under the game of cost and supply and demand, how should the PTA market be interpreted?
Fuhaichuang45010,000 tons /YearPTADevice maintenanceAffect geometry?
DecemberMonthPTAThe device fluctuates more frequently. Yisheng Hua60010,000 tons and Yisheng New Materials360 devices will start and stop within the month; Fuhai Chuang45010,000-ton unit operates at reduced load; Hengli Petrochemical2#22010,000-ton, Yadong Petrochemical7510,000 tons, ZhuhaiBP11010,000 tons, Fujian Baihong250The 10,000-ton unit is undergoing maintenance. The downstream polyester terminal load remained at normal levels. At the end of the month, PTA’s early parking companies gradually resumed and restarted, and construction starts increased. Near the end of the year, some companies in polyester factories have plans to reduce their load.
In terms of demand, 12 the monthly polyester industry output473.28 million tons, a month-on-month increase0.64%. The average monthly load was 83.16%, down 2.5% from the previous month. The main reason for the different output and load trends in the industry is that due to poor demand performance, some companies reduced production and performed maintenance at the beginning of the month. Coupled with the early Spring Festival this year, some companies also joined the production reduction queue at the end of the month. Overall, PTA’s recent rise is driven by costs (rising crude oil + processing caused by shrinking supply Cost of repair is expected). At the end of the month, the equipment was gradually restarted, and the overall operation of PTA also gradually increased to 81.09%, while 1With the exception of Fuhai Chuang, which will undergo maintenance in January, there is currently no expected maintenance of other devices.
Based on the restart and maintenance status of domestic PTA devices, 2022 1Monthly domesticPTA monthly supply increased to 478.21 10,000 tons, we still need to pay close attention to the equipment maintenance situation. From the demand side2022 year1 month, the end of the month coincides with the Spring Festival holiday, and terminal factories are on holiday one after another. Under the epidemic situation, polyester factories have also reduced production and overhauled more. It is expected that polyester output will be higher in January 2022. 2021YearDecember will continue to decline.
Overall, PTA construction starts fell first and then rose during the month, and the current construction starts have risen to 77.69 %, followed by Yadong Petrochemical, Honggang Petrochemical and ZhuhaiBP units.There is no restart, but Fuhaichuang 450 million tons1 will undergo maintenance at the beginning of the month, and the maintenance and restart will be hedged. , but the overall supply has returned to a state of accumulated inventory from a slight destocking.
It is difficult to repair the Big Mac device and the year-end market is weakNegative feedback will Gradually transmitted to the upstream
And recentlyPTA has been able to rise well. The reason is that the cost-side crude oil has been relatively strong recentlyPTAThe main driver of price increases. Specifically, although concerns about the Omicron virus variant still exist, and the Iran nuclear deal negotiations will be restarted again, the decline in U.S. crude oil inventories is good for fermentation, and market concerns about the Omicron virus variant continue to ease, while European energy supplies Risks still exist. Coupled with production interruptions in some oil-producing countries, the crude oil market has risen for 4 consecutive days. WTI has been rising since the beginning of the month. The 65.75USD/ barrel rose to 76.99USD/ barrels, Brent crude oil from the beginning of the month68.87USD/ barrels rose to 79.32USD/barrels at the end of the month. And from the perspective of direct raw materialsPX, 12 AsiaPXPrice fluctuated and rose, CFRTaiwan, China/Mainland prices increased from the beginning of the month815USD/tons rose to 879.33USD/tons, domesticPX starts have declined, and the overall supply has narrowed, which shows that the cost end of PTAThe market is strongly supported by the upward trend. Optimism has made crude oil prices slightly stronger, and PTA cost support has been strong.
However, in the later period, PTA still faces pressure on its own supply side, and may maintain seasonal inventory accumulation in the first quarter. At the same time, as the Spring Festival approaches, some polyester plants have begun to reduce production, and the polyester load is expected to gradually decline. In terms of terminals, domestic demand has entered the Spring Festival holiday ahead of schedule, the overall performance of orders is weak, terminal inventory has accumulated, and negative feedback will gradually be transmitted to the upstream.
In short, although PTA supply and demand are gradually weakening, the current spot market liquidity is still not loose, superimposed on oil prices and PX has a strong trend, and short-termPTA has a strong trend. However, considering that the profit of downstream polyester has been compressed to a low level, the upside potential of PTA is limited to a certain extent. Pay attention to oil price trends and changes in PTA’s spot liquidity.
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