Introduction: The monthly report has prompted The 05 contract is under pressure near the 5,200 yuan/ton line. As the supply-side benefits gradually materialize, the demand-side is expected to weaken, and the market is under pressure to decline.
1. Futures market
Eastern China in the morningPTA market prices fell, and the basis for delivery orders was basically stable. The reference for negotiation is around 5,070 yuan/ton. The mainstream supply of goods in the main port is that in mid-January, the discount for 05 is around 45, and the discount for 05 is around 45-50; the discount for 05 in lower January is around 35, and the discount for 05 is around 50; this week’s warehouse receipt report The price of plate 01 is around 2-3, or the price of 05 is around 55, and the price of bid 01 is around flat water, or the price of 05 is around 60. There are few spot stocks in the main port, polyester factories have sporadic hard demand for replenishment, traders mainly ship goods, and negotiations are average. (Unit: Yuan/ton).
2. Supply and demand
Yesterday’s domesticThe overall operating load of PTA equipment was 74.31% (the first phase of Yisheng New Materials equipment was added, and the domestic effective production capacity base of PTA was adjusted to 66.29 million tons on July 9, 2021). With the addition of PTA Construction starts declined, and the daily supply and demand accumulation of domestic PTA decreased. Yesterday, the comprehensive operating load of polyester increased to 84.36% (the domestic polyester production capacity base was adjusted to 64.815 million tons/year on January 1, 2022). Polyester production is expected to reduce, and the load may slowly decrease. In terms of production and sales, the focus of market transactions rose yesterday, and the market inquiry atmosphere dropped. The production and sales of some companies were flat, and the production and sales of most companies were between 30% and 50%. As of 15:35, the mainstream production and sales of the sample factory were 69.5%, and the production and sales rate of the previous day was revised to 222.8%, a decrease of 153.3% from the previous working day.
3. Current inventory
Currently PTA factory inventory is around 4.7 days, polyester factory raw material inventory is around 7.6 days, the total warehouse receipts are 76,801, a daily increase of -7,224, effective forecasts are 174, and the total inventory today is 0,800. tons, the total social inventory is 3.7013 million tons (the import and export volume of PTA in October was adjusted on December 21, and the inventory data has been adjusted).
4. Long and short logic
Bull logic: International crude oil is still at a relatively high level; the current absolute price is relatively low; the actual production capacity is lower than expected; spot supply is still small.
Short logic: social inventory pressure is still high; industrial short-selling and hedging is still there; terminal orders are not good; annual new production capacity is around 10 million tons.
5. Comprehensive analysis
In the short term, the impact of the epidemic in Zhejiang on shipments has eased slightly. Some factories have released spot goods, and the supply of spot goods has eased. In the medium and long term, with the increase in supply-side starts and the launch of new production capacity, polyester demand is expected to weaken, and inventory accumulation The expectations are obvious. In addition, the processing range has improved significantly, and hedging can be intervened. The pressure on the medium and long-term 05 contract is gradually becoming apparent. It is recommended to be cautious in chasing the increase.
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