On the 7th, driven by the continued rise in oil prices, chemical products all experienced increases to varying degrees. In particular, the “three brothers” of the polyester chain have experienced a relatively large rebound after experiencing a long period of low consolidation. The reporter noticed that ethylene glycol and short fiber futures led the gains by more than 3% in early trading on the 7th, followed by PTA futures following up. As of the close of the day, PTA futures rose by 3.75%, short fiber futures rose by 2.84%, and ethylene glycol futures rose by 3.98%. All three varieties recorded their largest weekly gains in recent times.
As for the strength of polyester chain varieties, industry insiders believe that driven by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the market has begun to revise its pessimistic supply and demand expectations for polyester.
“The current strength of the polyester chain is mainly due to the sharp rise in oil prices and the strengthening of polyester cost-end support. In addition, the installation problems of polyester raw materials have led to strong prices of PTA and ethylene glycol. And short fiber is due to both polyester raw materials. Rising costs, combined with low inventories, may trigger positive feedback from fundamentals.” said Pang Chunyan, analyst at SDIC Essence Futures.
According to Pang Chunyan, Yisheng Ningbo PTA’s shipments were slow due to the epidemic, and its load dropped slightly. The 1.2 million-ton unit in Sanfangxiang was temporarily suspended. In addition to the cost support brought by oil prices, the important benefit for ethylene glycol is that the industry’s poor production profits lead to expectations of production reductions in the equipment.
While the upstream is shrinking, the downstream polyester market has also unexpectedly picked up. It is understood that at the beginning of this week, the production and sales of polyester yarn increased significantly. CCF news shows that production and sales on January 4 were around 290%, and production and sales on January 5 were around 80%. Overall, destocking may continue during the week.
“Polyester filament and short fiber have experienced a periodic increase in transaction volume, and recently, bottle flakes have continued to maintain high profits and high export market conditions.” Chen Sheng, an analyst at Guomao Futures, said that based on the analysis of the downstream stocking situation, before this year’s holiday, the number of downstream stocking days Higher than the same period in previous years, this indicates that the real downstream order demand may exceed expectations.
In Chen Sheng’s view, the current support for the polyester market is still strong. “On the one hand, under the relatively tense international political environment, the cost support of crude oil has not weakened; on the other hand, in 2022, PTA supply and demand will maintain a tight balance, and large PTA factories will adjust spot sales and processing profits. Change the pattern of PTA being continuously vacant,” said Chen Sheng.
It should be noted that the Spring Festival is approaching, which is the seasonal off-season for polyester. Recently, the start-up of polyester has been maintained at around 85%, with limited fluctuations. The profit of polyester has declined, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level for the same period in history.
“Due to seasonal reasons, terminal construction will continue to weaken before the Spring Festival, and it is difficult to see a big increase in polyester load in January.” Zhu Lihang, an analyst at Zheshang Futures, said that the support for a stronger market depends more on the strength of the cost side. degree.
In this regard, Pang Chunyan also believes that the current market is mainly bullish on the upstream raw materials side. If oil prices can maintain an upward trend, it can continue to support the market. “If oil prices continue to be strong, the industry will passively follow the strength of oil prices. Once oil prices weaken, PTA and ethylene glycol are expected to have accumulated inventories, and negative pressures such as the pressure to put new units into production will also put pressure on the market again.”
In Zhu Lihang’s view, the market price of polyester chains before the holiday may be mainly cost-driven, and after the holiday, the main focus will be on the recovery of demand. “If terminal demand can return to normal levels quickly and the polyester load is increased, the polyester industry chain may usher in a supply-demand driven market. The focus before the holiday is still on the cost-end oil prices and coal prices.” Zhu Lihang said .
“Specifically, the pace of PTA factory adjustment of spot circulation will affect the price trend of the futures market in a short period of time; in terms of ethylene glycol, investors need to pay more attention to the actual start-up of the device and changes in maintenance, and beware of the black swan event of crude oil. Happened.” Chen Sheng said.
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