After a few months of silence at the end of last year, international oil prices have surged in the new year. In early trading in Asia on January 18, Brent crude oil once exceeded 87 US dollars per barrel, setting a new high in 2014. Goldman Sachs had previously predicted that oil prices could reach 100 US dollars per barrel within the year. USD/barrel, currently, the target is getting closer.
On January 18, Brent oil opened directly upward, directly breaking through 87 US dollars/barrel, and hitting 88.13 US dollars/barrel during the session. New York crude oil also rose linearly, exceeding US$84/barrel, and once rose to US$85.16/barrel. Both refreshed recent intraday highs.
On the news, data recently released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that despite a sharp drop in U.S. refinery operating rates, U.S. crude oil inventories have fallen to the lowest level since October 2018, and the decline has exceeded expectations; while weak demand has led to a sharp decline in gasoline inventories rise. At the same time, the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve continues to decrease and distillate inventories continue to increase, with inventories well below the levels of the same period in the past five years.
On the other hand, according to foreign media citing sources, the market believes that Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine is increasingly likely (Russian and Ukrainian dollar bonds have been hit). A direct invasion by Russia would have a significant impact on global crude oil supply. Russia is one of the world’s largest oil producers, producing more than 11 million barrels of oil per day (more than 10% of global daily supply).
The international oil price performance in 2021 will be the best in the past ten years. Against the background of the overall surge, most institutions and organizations are also optimistic about this year’s oil price.
In its monthly oil market report released in December 2021, OPEC believes that now that countries around the world are better able to cope with the new coronavirus epidemic and related challenges, the impact of the Omicron mutant strain is expected to be mild and short-lived, and that developed economies The economic outlook for China and emerging economies is stable.
Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs’ global head of commodity research, recently said that the bank is “extremely bullish” on commodities and believes that a 10-year super cycle may emerge. Goldman Sachs said it had a price target of $85 a barrel for Brent crude in the first quarter, but that was assuming Iranian output would resume later this year. However, this now looks increasingly unlikely. If Iran does not resume exports, it could see oil prices reach $100 a barrel this year.
JPMorgan Chase boldly predicts that oil prices may soar to US$125 per barrel this year and US$150 per barrel in 2023. They said the market is increasingly aware of insufficient investment in global supply, and that the combination of insufficient investment by OPEC+ oil-producing countries and rising oil demand after the epidemic may lead to a potential energy crisis.
Domestic Industrial Securities believes that the time when oil prices exceed US$90/barrel and hit US$100/barrel may be earlier than their previous expectation of 2023, and the possibility of it happening within the year is increasing. The specific logic is as follows:
(1) The world is currently transitioning to clean energy and is committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. This makes it possible for this round of commodity prices to rise sharply but capital investment to remain sluggish. This is a situation where the prices of new energy and old energy have both risen sharply. era. (2) With the current low level of global crude oil inventories, the commodity market has very low ability to respond to sudden supply shortages. If there is a sudden supply shortage, this benchmark judgment in 2022 will have a greater upward risk, and this risk is gradually becoming a reality.
On the contrary, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expressed concern about the impact of the new coronavirus mutant strain on the oil market in its short-term energy outlook released in December 2021, predicting the output of OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries, the United States and other countries in 2022 The growth rate will exceed the growth rate of global oil consumption.
</p
