In the early morning of January 21, the latest data released by the U.S. EIA showed that EIA crude oil inventories in the United States increased by 515,000 barrels to 413.8 million barrels in the week to January 14. Except for strategic reserves, the increase in commercial crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, the increase in refined oil inventories was basically in line with expectations, and the increase in gasoline inventories exceeded expectations. Morgan Stanley expects Brent crude oil prices to rise to US$100 per barrel by the third quarter of 2022.
EIA crude oil inventories rise more than expected
In the early morning of January 21, the latest data released by the U.S. EIA showed that EIA crude oil inventories in the United States increased by 515,000 barrels to 413.8 million barrels in the week to January 14. In addition, the EIA gasoline inventory in the United States actually reported an increase of 5.873 million barrels in the week ending January 14, which was expected to increase by 2.6 million barrels, and the previous value increased 7.961 million barrels; the EIA refined oil inventory in the United States actually announced a decrease of 1.431 million barrels in the week ending January 14. barrels, expected to decrease by 1.3 million barrels, while the previous value increased by 2.537 million barrels.
The EIA report showed that U.S. crude oil exports increased by 655,000 barrels per day last week to 2.61 million barrels per day. The four-week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 21.157 million barrels per day, an increase of 11.9% from the same period last year. U.S. domestic crude oil production remained unchanged last week. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 1.348 million barrels last week to 592 million barrels, a decrease of 0.23%.
The EIA report showed that commercial crude oil imports, excluding strategic reserves, were 6.745 million barrels per day last week, an increase of 676,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 515,000 barrels to 413.8 million barrels, an increase of 0.1%.
The EIA report shows that the EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory in the United States in the week to January 14 was the lowest since the week of November 15, 2002.
Global oil market conditions appear to be tighter than previously thought, with the latest coronavirus strain unexpectedly having little impact on demand but causing supply disruptions, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.
The IEA said in its monthly report that the excess supply faced by the global market this year is reducing, and oil demand has increased slightly from last month and is expected to reach the pre-epidemic level of 99.7 million barrels per day. At the same time, supply has been constrained, the OPEC+ alliance has struggled to resume suspended production, and producers elsewhere have encountered a series of disruptions that have reduced spare capacity.
U.S. crude oil prices rose in the short term after the EIA data was released. As of early morning today, the settlement price of international crude oil futures closed slightly lower, with the settlement price of WTI February crude oil futures closing down 0.07% at $86.90 per barrel. Brent March crude oil futures settlement price closed down 0.07% at $88.38 per barrel.
It is worth mentioning that early this morning, Morgan Stanley predicted that Brent crude oil prices will rise to US$100 per barrel by the third quarter of 2022.
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