The past year 2021 is the first year of the “14th Five-Year Plan”. Affected by multiple factors such as repeated epidemics, strict domestic environmental protection, power cuts, and extreme weather, the development of the viscose staple fiber industry is facing many variables. Against the background of increasing industry concentration, the author tries to dig into deeper issues in the supply and demand market: Will the actual output in 2021 really reach 3.8 million tons? What kind of game relationship does the annual price trend of viscose staple fiber reflect with rayon yarn? What is the reason for the decline in pricing power of viscose staple fiber? The author hopes to clarify the fundamentals of viscose staple fiber industry operation in 2021 through these three questions, so as to help the industry achieve marketing breakthroughs in 2022.
Viscose staple fiber industry concentration increases
China’s total viscose staple fiber production capacity in 2021 is 5.23 million tons. The top five companies in terms of production capacity are: Sateri with 1.82 million tons, Tangshan Sanyou with 850,000 tons, Zhongtai Textile with 800,000 tons, Siliya with 350,000 tons, and Shandong Yamei with 320,000 tons. Judging from the ranking of the top five companies, Sateri has 970,000 tons more than Sanyou, and the head effect is obvious. The total production capacity of the top five viscose staple fiber companies is 4.14 million tons, accounting for 79.16% of the total production capacity. Data show that the concentration of the viscose staple fiber industry is increasing.
In terms of geographical distribution, Jiangsu and Xinjiang each have 4 viscose staple fiber factories; Shandong and Jiangxi each have 3 viscose staple fiber factories; Hebei and Sichuan each have 2 viscose staple fiber factories; Jilin, Hubei, and Anhui and Fujian each have one viscose staple fiber factory; Henan Xinxiang Chemical Fiber’s 80,000-ton viscose staple fiber production capacity will completely withdraw from the viscose staple fiber production sequence in 2021. This indicates that my country’s viscose staple fiber is gradually becoming more concentrated in terms of geographical distribution.
Judging from the nature of corporate equity, among the 14 viscose staple fiber manufacturers: 3 foreign-funded companies have a total production capacity of 2.075 million tons, accounting for 39.68% of the total production capacity; 8 central enterprises and state-owned enterprises have a total production capacity of 2.53 million tons, accounting for 39.68% of the total production capacity; 48.37% of the total production capacity; there are three private enterprises with a total production capacity of 625,000 tons, accounting for 11.95% of the total production capacity. From the perspective of enterprise nature, the number of private enterprises in the viscose staple fiber industry is relatively small.
In 2021, Sateri completed the acquisition of Funing Aoyang, and Funing Aoyang’s 320,000 tons of viscose staple fiber production capacity was allocated to Sateri. So far, Sateri has a total viscose staple fiber production capacity in China of 1.82 million tons, accounting for 34.8% of total production capacity. Xinjiang Tiantai’s 150,000 tons production capacity was allocated from Zhongtai Textile to Shandong Yinying. Shandong Yinying has a total viscose staple fiber production capacity of 235,000 tons. The only new production line in 2021 is Weifang Xinlong, a subsidiary of Hengtian Fiber Group. Of its 200,000 tons production capacity, 80,000 tons of production lines were put into operation in the second half of the year and successfully reached capacity.
In 2021, affected by multiple factors such as repeated epidemics, periodic shortages of dissolving pulp, strict domestic environmental protection, power cuts, and extreme weather, the viscose staple fiber industry has insufficient operating rates. Some factories in Anhui and Xinjiang have failed to form effective production capacity due to environmental protection issues; some factories in Jiangsu are operating at less than 30% due to large-scale acquisitions; in Shandong, Hebei and other places, viscose staple fiber production in these two provinces has started due to factors such as the epidemic and environmental protection. The operating rate is around 60%; in Jiangsu, Hubei, Jiangxi, and Fujian, due to power restrictions in the second half of the year, the operating rate is less than 80%. Taking into account the different production capacity weights of viscose staple fiber in various regions, using the weighted average method, the author finally believes that the annual average operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is around 70%.
Is the actual annual production less than 3.8 million tons?
According to the above statistics, the annual average operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is 68% to 70%. Combined with the annual viscose staple fiber production capacity of 5.23 million tons, the output of viscose staple fiber in 2021 is between 3.56 million and 3.66 million tons. However, this data is quite different from the 3.8 million tons calculated by some information companies in the industry. In order to clarify the actual production of viscose staple fiber in 2021, the author started with the dissolving pulp at the raw material supply end to explore the more appropriate actual production of viscose staple fiber in 2021.
The production situation of major domestic dissolving pulp companies in 2021 is as follows: only two units, Hunan Juntai and Sun Paper, have normal production schedules. The remaining dissolving pulp companies do not have normal production plans, and due to the market price is affected by imported dissolving Pulp pressing, the two companies together produce 400,000 tons of dissolving pulp. Except for a few factories in Xinjiang, all domestic cotton pulp companies will close down before 2020 due to environmental issues.
Judging from import data, my country’s total imports of dissolving pulp in 2021 will be 3.45 million tons, including the imports of differentiated fibers such as lyocell, viscose filament, acetate fiber and other fields that require dissolving pulp. The total import volume of this part About 300,000 tons. Therefore, the amount of dissolving pulp imported into my country in 2021 that can be used to make viscose staple fiber is 3.15 million tons.
Domestic dissolving pulp 400,000 tons plus imported part 3.15 million tons, the amount of dissolving pulp that can be provided to the viscose staple fiber industry this year is 3.55 million tons; plus modified pulp and a small amount of cotton pulp in Xinjiang, viscose Short fiber can consume no more than 3.6 million tons of dissolving pulp. If 1.02 tons of dissolving pulp is used to make 1 ton of viscose staple fiber, approximately 3.52 million tons of viscose staple fiber can be produced, which is significantly lower than the industry estimate of 3.8 million tons of viscose staple fiber production.
The author believes that the main reason why most industry information companies believe that the output of viscose staple fiber this year is 3.8 million tons is that the market price of viscose staple fiber in 2021 is higher than that in 2020, and it has risen rapidly in the first half of the year. Viscose staple fiber factories are in When there is profit, we will run at full capacity and plan production. Therefore, in the first half of the year, most information companies, including some securities research institutions,Cashed out by selling goods at a low price. In addition, some viscose staple fiber factories with relatively tight capital chains have also seen the phenomenon of selling goods at low prices during this stage. The combination of all factors caused chaos in the entire viscose staple fiber market, which ultimately triggered a rapid decline in the entire market.
From the end of September to early November, the market price of rayon ring-spun R30S rose from 16,700 yuan/ton to 19,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.77%. The price of viscose staple fiber increased from 11,700 yuan/ton to 14,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.22%.
From mid-November to the end of December, the market price of rayon ring-spun R30S gradually dropped from 19,500 yuan/ton to 17,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.79%; the price of viscose staple fiber gradually dropped from 14,300 yuan/ton to 12,000 yuan/ton. tons, a decrease of 16.08%.
During this stage, the market price of rayon yarn ring-spun R30S is rising by 5.45 percentage points less than that of viscose staple fiber. This shows that every time the price rises, the viscose staple fiber factories take the initiative to raise prices, forcing the rayon yarn factories to passively accept the increase. However, during the decline, the market price of rayon ring-spun R30S fell 4.29 percentage points less than the market price of viscose staple fiber. This shows that in the process of falling rayon yarn prices, although the trend keeps pace with the price of viscose staple fiber, the amplitude is relatively controllable. On the other hand, during the price decline, rayon yarn factories have become more proactive in purchasing viscose staple fiber.
Why has the pricing power of viscose staple fiber declined?
Subtract the market price of viscose staple fiber (1.5D) from the market price of rayon yarn ring-spun R30S to get the price difference between the two (hereinafter referred to as the price difference). From the price difference between the two, we can explore who will benefit from the market game in 2021. By.
The price difference between the two represents the profitability of the viscose staple fiber factory or the rayon yarn factory. When the value between the two is smaller, the rayon yarn factory earns less profit; conversely, the price difference between the two The bigger it is, the more profit the rayon yarn factory can earn.
It can be seen from Figure 2 that the watershed of the price difference in 2021 is 4,500 yuan/ton; the price difference from January to July is lower than 4,500 yuan/ton; the price difference from August to December is higher than 4,500 yuan/ton. The price difference remained at 4,000 yuan/ton in the first quarter. It can be seen from Figure 1 that this stage is a process in which the market prices of viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn rise together; in this process, both are relatively profitable and can be converted. Prices can be transmitted smoothly, and it can be said that this is a process of coordinated rise.
However, from late March to the end of April, the price difference began to decrease, reaching a minimum of 2,800 yuan/ton. At this time, the profits of the spinning mills were severely squeezed, and even gross losses occurred. In this case, the yarn mill will force the viscose staple fiber factory to reduce prices. If viscose staple fiber factories do not reduce prices, then spinning mills may switch to polyester or cotton production. In fact, some spinning mills have indeed switched to cotton production or blended yarns at this stage.
From mid-April to the end of May, some viscose staple fiber factories reduced prices due to inventory factors, and the price difference began to gradually increase; however, the yarn market was in a state of decline from this stage until the end of June, and viscose staple fiber prices continued to decline in June. Sideways operation; ultimately, the price difference at this stage has been hovering around 3,800 yuan/ton. This price difference can only maintain capital for rayon yarn factories. Eventually, most yarn mills, especially vortex spinning mills, no longer produce pure rayon yarn; they instead produce T/R yarn, thus reducing the amount of viscose staple fiber in disguise.
From August to December, the price difference basically remained above 4,500 yuan/ton. This was mainly because the supply of rayon yarn in the market had decreased, but the demand was still there. The rayon yarn and rayon cloth were in a tight balance among suppliers. state. However, the inventory of viscose staple fiber has increased due to the decline in the use of viscose staple fiber in rayon yarn factories. Eventually, it had to resort to “sudden price drops” to sell inventory when funds were tight. This also shows that in the market game in the second half of the year, the voice of viscose staple fiber has gradually decreased due to the conversion of spinning mills.
By reviewing and analyzing the operating status of the viscose staple fiber market in 2021, it will be clearly found that the “loyalty” of rayon yarn factories to viscose staple fiber products is declining in 2021. The main reason for this phenomenon is: rayon yarn factories Equipment and process management levels have entered a new realm. In the past, rayon yarn factories did not dare to rashly switch to spinning other fibers. They were mainly worried about the presence of foreign fibers after spinning multiple fibers, and that the end products might have quality problems during dyeing. However, during the epidemic, as the management level of most factories improved, the degree of equipment automation increased, and the closed-loop management of workshops became stricter, most rayon yarn factories no longer worry about the presence of foreign fibers caused by blending and then pure spinning. Rayon yarn factories can produce various fiber blends or pure spinning yarns according to customer needs. This change has ended the history of pure spinning in rayon yarn factories for many years.
In view of the above-mentioned changes in yarn mills, viscose staple fiber factories need to pay attention to customers’ flexibility in selecting raw materials during the marketing process. At the same time, they need to cultivate customers’ stickiness to the use of viscose staple fiber. They can no longer use the “violent pull” when the market was good in the past. When the market goes down, we use the “tearful sale” method for marketing. Although viscose staple fiber is an industrial product, the varieties of viscose staple fiber produced by each manufacturer are still slightly different. This was an advantage in the era when rayon yarn factories could not change spinning, but now when we have to compete with standardized products, this may became a disadvantage. Therefore, regarding the change in market style in late 2021, viscose staple fiber factories need to study it as an important topic in order to seek marketing breakthroughs in 2022.
� It is an industrial product, but the varieties of viscose staple fiber produced by each manufacturer are still slightly different. This was an advantage in the era when rayon yarn factories could not change spinning, but now it may become a disadvantage when competing with standardized products. Therefore, regarding the change in market style in late 2021, viscose staple fiber factories need to study it as an important topic in order to seek marketing breakthroughs in 2022.
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