Data source: Jin Lianchuang
The Asian ethylene glycol market trend in 2021 closely follows the spot market trend. The largest fluctuations throughout the year are mainly concentrated in March and October. The average price of ethylene glycol in Northeast Asia in 2021 is US$678.04/ton, an increase of 49.1% compared with 2020. The highest point during the year was US$972/ton, and the lowest point was US$570/ton, with a price difference of US$402/ton.
The price of ethylene glycol showed an upward trend in the first quarter, supported by favorable market supply in January. Domestic prices rose sharply, and the US dollar quotation of ethylene glycol also continued to rise. The volume of imported cargo arriving at the port decreased and the port inventory dropped recently; entering February, Before the Spring Festival holiday, the supply of imported goods in the market decreased and port inventories were low. This coincided with the support of crude oil prices and the rise in U.S. dollar prices. After the holiday, affected by the maintenance of peripheral devices, the U.S. dollar market price continued to rise; the supply of imported goods in March was still tight, but terminal The consumer demand for polyester is unsatisfactory, the consumption speed of terminals is still not as fast as the growth rate of MEG supply, and the US dollar price has begun to enter a downward channel.
Ethylene glycol prices began to fluctuate in the second quarter. Due to tight supply, the European Union implemented anti-dumping measures against U.S. ethylene glycol. European prices are still at a high level. The arbitrage window between Asia and Europe has opened, and the price difference between the two regions exceeds 300. USD/ton; however, as MEG supply pressure increases, the market outlook becomes more bearish. Affected by the Iranian installation in May, the market was heavily hyped, and prices showed a small upward trend. However, due to expectations of increased supply in the future, the market maintained a bearish attitude toward the market outlook, and prices fell slightly.
Crude oil prices began to fall in the third quarter. Due to the resurgence of the third wave of the epidemic, downstream PET demand was sluggish. Although supply in Europe was tight at this time, freight rates were high and there was no possibility of arbitrage. At the same time, all ethylene glycol units in Saudi Arabia were in operation. , the increase in supply has aggravated the wait-and-see mood of the market; ethylene glycol has continued its upward trend since September and October. Affected by typhoon weather, ports have been closed, and many domestic and foreign equipment have recently been overhauled, reducing the supply of goods arriving at the port.
In the fourth quarter, due to increased supply and downstream power restrictions, demand weakened, driving the price of the US dollar to fall. At the same time, due to high raw material prices, the operating load of some coal-making enterprises was not high. At the same time, due to the closure of arbitrage, the amount of ethylene glycol imported from the United States decreased. , arbitrage between China and Europe is open, and the price difference exceeds US$250/ton. The timing of the commissioning of ExxonMobil and SABIC’s 1.1 million tons/year MEG unit in Texas is a major concern for the market.
Taken together, the trend of Asian ethylene glycol closely follows the trend of East China’s main ports, and with the increase of new domestic installations, ethylene glycol is gradually nationalized, and domestic ethylene glycol prices account for a larger share.
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