According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic PTA market continued to rise in January. The average market price in East China was 5,425 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 9.31% and a year-on-year increase of 42.72%.
The positive support of crude oil has helped the PTA market continue to rise this month. As of January 27, the settlement price of the main U.S. WTI crude oil futures contract was US$86.61/barrel, a decrease of US$0.74, or 0.9%, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was US$88.17/barrel, a decrease of US$0.57, or 0.64%. The March Brent crude oil contract rose above $90 for the first time since 2014. The main reason is that the expected supply tightness continues to boost oil prices, tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalate, and OPEC’s production increase is less than expected.
Domestic PTA device change statistics in January
The pressure on the supply side remains the same. In January, many domestic PTA devices were restarted, and the industry’s start-up increased to more than 86%. With the addition of Yisheng New Materials’ 3.3 million-ton new device being commissioned at the end of January, PTA supply is expected to increase. However, two PTA units in East China have announced maintenance plans, which has significantly boosted the market. Among them, Yisheng Ningbo’s 2 million tons PTA unit is scheduled to be overhauled in February; Yisheng New Materials’ 3.3 million tons/year PTA unit is scheduled to be overhauled in February.
Affected by the strength of raw materials, the polyester market is also showing a volatile upward trend as a whole, with monthly increases of 6-10% for each product.
However, on the demand side, with the arrival of the Spring Festival holiday, terminal textile factories are on holiday, and pre-holiday stocking is coming to an end, so the purchase of raw materials is gradually reduced. As dyeing plants and weaving operations are being shut down one after another, the comprehensive operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped rapidly from 60% at the beginning of the month to less than 10%.
In the short term, the oil market price is expected to continue operating at a high level. However, with the investment of new PTA production capacity and the approaching Spring Festival, the operating rate of downstream polyester factories will further decline. As demand weakens, PTA will face greater accumulation pressure. It is expected that PTA prices will continue to The growth is weak, and we still need to pay attention to the resumption of work on the demand side after the holiday.
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