[Introduction]: Crude oil futures rose sharply during the Spring Festival holiday. As the end product of the refining and chemical integration project, the polyester industry chain is also deeply affected by the fluctuation of crude oil prices. Superimposed on the performance of the supply and demand side of each product, the industry will have a “good start.”
As shown in the above table, compared with before the holiday, crude oil prices have increased significantly, and the current geopolitical tensions have not eased. The market still has confidence in the trend of crude oil; under the strong cost support, polyester varieties are also prone to rise but difficult to fall.
Specifically, crude oil is high, coupled with the continued tight PX spot situation, the cost driver is stronger. However, due to the seasonal decline in polyester load in February, PTA’s own supply and demand accumulation is large, and there is a risk of compression in the subsequent processing range. The absolute price increase may be Hard to reach crude oil.
From the perspective of ethylene glycol, cost support is also strong, but from the supply perspective, the increase in domestic products is more obvious, but the reduction in imported goods has reduced the supply pressure to a certain extent. The overall supply situation has increased but has not exceeded expectations; from the demand side According to statistics, the pace of polyester and downstream production resumption after the holiday is not much different from the same period in previous years. Under the condition of low valuation due to limited supply and demand contradictions, there is a greater chance that ethylene glycol will continue its upward trend after the holiday.
In terms of polyester filament, there is a risk of polyester manufacturers accumulating inventory during the Spring Festival holiday. However, some manufacturers expect that post-holiday demand may be ahead of schedule, and cost support is strong. The absolute price in the post-holiday market will still be based on cost. However, considering overseas There are still many variables in the epidemic, and high shipping costs may suppress certain demand. The market will be long and short after the holidays. It is recommended that industry players should not be overly optimistic.
In terms of polyester staple fiber, there are not many equipment maintenance before and after the Spring Festival. However, after the early production restrictions, the operating rate of some leading companies continues to be less than full, and the inventory of short fiber companies also remains at a low level. Some leading companies are even still oversold by 20-20%. At the 30-day level, inventory pressure is generally low. From a downstream point of view, the time when the cotton mills stopped and resumed work is not much different from previous years, and because some of the orders from the cotton mills last year were received in mid-to-early February, and the processing difference level continues to be good, there is not a very sufficient background for raw material stocking before the holiday. Below, post-holiday demand is not suitable for short selling; combined with strong support from the cost side, the post-holiday market can still be expected.
In terms of polyester bottle flakes, bottle flake factories still mainly supply goods from far away, and the tight spot resource situation is difficult to significantly improve. With strong cost support, the price of polyester bottle flakes is also expected to show an upward trend.
In terms of the polyester chip market, some polyester chip factories are still in an oversold state before the holiday. It is expected that the overall post-holiday inventory increase will be limited. In addition, the downstream demand for glossy chips has increased, making the processing range of glossy chips still loose, superimposed on the strong With cost support, the polyester chip market is expected to fluctuate upward after the holiday.
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