As the domestic PTA industry chain integration project continues to improve, new PTA equipment has been put into production intensively, some backward production capacity has been cleared, and industry concentration has increased significantly. Oversupply of PTA production capacity has become a consensus issue in the industry. Affected by this, the PTA market is expected to remain in a period of low processing fees in 2022, and prices will continue to be weak.
Judging from the market trends in 2021, driven by the crude oil market, the PTA market price fluctuates frequently. The price of the auxiliary material acetic acid once rose sharply, and the processing fees of manufacturing companies fell. The main suppliers of PTA relied on reducing contract supply to boost the market. However, under the influence of the “dual control” policy in the second half of the year, both supply and demand in the PTA industry decreased, causing the market to be sluggish during the “Golden September and Silver Ten” peak seasons. Throughout the year, the improvement of the domestic PTA supply and demand pattern has caused subtle changes in the industry. The increase in cost and price has narrowed the profitability of the entire industry. Some new device production plans have been postponed, and small and medium-sized enterprises have no plans to resume production of long-term parking devices. Against this background, profits in the industrial chain are constantly being transferred and redistributed. Upstream PX suffers serious profit losses, which in turn transmits the value of the industry downwards. PTA is also in the red for most of the year. Due to low raw material prices and the relief of downstream polyester cost pressure, most polyester products are at a profitable level, especially polyester filament, which has the highest profitability.
Figure 1 Main domestic PTA market trends in 2021
Data source: Jinlianchuang big data intelligent decision-making system
The editor predicts the PTA market trend in 2022 as follows:
(1) Macroscopic and external influencing factors
Although the epidemic continues to recur, it is still within control, and China’s economy is expected to continue its steady recovery in 2022. While the economy continues to improve, there are also factors that may have a certain impact on the sustainability of economic recovery. Structurally, it is expected that real estate will continue its downward trend, manufacturing investment will maintain an upward trend, and consumption will gradually return to near the potential level at the current low level. PPI will fall due to the high base, and CPI may rise. At the same time, for energy coal and natural gas, as demand weakens seasonally, natural gas and coal prices may continue to return to fundamentals. For crude oil, global oil prices may remain at a high level early next year, and then demand growth may decline, and oil prices may show a downward trend.
(2) PTA fundamental forecast
The growth rate of PTA production capacity will develop rapidly in 2021. The original PTA companies have expanded significantly, and some downstream companies have expanded their raw material equipment, achieving the trend of expanding the industrial chain upstream and realizing the full range from “crude oil-PX-PTA-polyester”. Industrial chain development model and integrated projects have developed by leaps and bounds. In the process of this development, new characteristics have also emerged in the PTA industry pattern. In 2021, 8.2 million tons of new domestic PTA devices will be put into production, and 1.7 million tons of old devices will be eliminated. In recent years, the domestic PTA industry has experienced a period of overcapacity and a period of overcapacity reshuffle, and changes in the supply pattern have had a greater impact on the market. According to statistics from Jin Lianchuang, 14 million tons of new devices will be put into operation in 2022. If the new devices are put into operation as scheduled, the total domestic PTA production capacity is expected to exceed 81.555 million tons in 2022, with a growth rate of 20.72%.
Facing the arrival of 2022, Jin Lianchuang believes that the domestic PTA market trend in 2022 may remain weak. From the perspective of supply situation, with the increase of PTA production capacity by 6.5 million tons in 2021, PTA overcapacity has become an industry consensus. Although there are new production starts for downstream polyester, the growth rate is far less than that of raw material PTA. From the demand side, the demand for downstream polyester and end-use textiles has increased slowly. At the same time, textile exports have declined year-on-year, and inventories in all links of the industrial chain have remained high. In addition, there are also uncertainties in the crude oil market, and the game of fundamentals is still in a state of seesaw. The current PTA industry has formed an oligopoly market. After squeezing out high-cost devices, some form of price alliance cannot be ruled out. Therefore, the PTA market in 2022 may remain in a period of low processing fees like 2021. It is expected that About 400-600 yuan/ton.
(3) New changes in the industry
With the growth rate of domestic PTA production capacity, the surplus situation has become prominent, and PTA export volume has gradually increased, which has also laid a solid foundation for the internationalization of the PTA industry. It is understood that the export signing situation of major suppliers is currently booming, so PTA export activity will increase in 2022. However, the growth rate of downstream polyester production capacity has slowed down compared with upstream PTA. However, there is still room for growth in the concentration of the polyester industry in the future. The upstream and downstream industrial chains of leading enterprises will continue to improve, and enterprise grouping and industrial chain development will be obvious. It is expected that the production capacity growth trend may continue in 2022.
From the perspective of the terminal textile industry, as the power of the digital economy engine continues to increase and the global climate governance situation becomes increasingly urgent, digital empowerment and green transformation provide the key for the textile industry to seek future business form evolution and economic development model upgrades, and achieve sustainable development. support. The textile industry is a pillar industry for the national economy and social development, a basic industry that solves people’s livelihood and beautifies life, and an advantageous industry for international cooperation and integrated development. It is imperative but also has a long way to go to achieve low-carbon development. However, the current demand for real estate is definitely declining, and the market’s expectations for widespread policy relaxation are not strong. There is basically a consensus that the market will be weak in 2022. With real estate sales�. The decline in construction starts has been transmitted to the completion end. It is difficult to have optimistic expectations for the completion of real estate. It is expected that the overall textile industry will continue to be weak.
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