Driven by the rise in oil prices during the Spring Festival holiday, energy and chemical products all rose to varying degrees after the opening. Due to differences in the fundamentals of different products and different sensitivities to oil prices, the supply and demand situation of plastics, PP, PVC and PTA is relatively good. , The varieties that are greatly affected by oil prices will see relatively large increases, while the varieties such as ethylene glycol that are expected to have relatively large accumulation reserves will have a relatively limited increase. After the recent adjustment in oil prices, chemicals that followed the rise also fell.
According to the reporter’s understanding, due to the smooth commissioning of the new ethylene glycol production capacity, many ethylene glycol units were restarted during the Spring Festival. Coal-to-ethylene glycol companies are more enthusiastic about starting operations. During the Spring Festival, the load of many units increased. Domestic weekly output reached 288,700 tons, an increase of 15.85% compared with the pre-holiday period. During the Spring Festival, port arrivals were smooth, but downstream enthusiasm for picking up goods was not high, and port inventories increased significantly after the holiday. After the rapid price increase after the holiday, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not ideal, and domestic port inventory is expected to accumulate.
“Ethylene glycol is currently in a situation where supply and demand are highly accumulated. On the one hand, new production capacity such as Zhenhai Refining and Guangxi Huayi has been successfully launched, and on the other hand, the operating rate of existing equipment has increased significantly, making the current domestic ethylene glycol daily The output has increased significantly compared with January. In addition, Xinjiang Guanghui, Shenhua Yulin, Shenghong Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical and other units are waiting to be put into operation in the later stage, and the supply pressure of the ethylene glycol market is greater. Overall, the ethylene glycol market in the first quarter The accumulation of stocks has increased significantly compared with market expectations. When the fundamentals are weak and energy chemical products generally decline, the decline of ethylene glycol will be relatively large.” Zhou Ao, an energy chemical researcher at Everbright Futures, said.
It is understood that the current trading of energy and chemical products requires attention on the one hand to the changes in energy prices such as crude oil, natural gas, and coal, and on the other hand to the fundamentals of each product. Especially when the price of raw materials continues to rise, it is necessary to pay attention How will downstream companies accept high-priced raw materials after resumption of work and production after the holidays, as well as the follow-up of later orders?
Regarding the market outlook, Zhou Ao believes that the current cost support is still there, and each process route is in a state of slight loss. The recent sharp decline also reflects the market’s expectations for the accumulation of ethylene glycol supply and demand to a certain extent. In the future, we need to pay attention to the actual accumulation of inventory. To what extent. In addition, attention needs to be paid to the follow-up efforts of terminal needs. During the holidays, the intensity of polyester production reduction is small, and the polyester load will quickly rise to a high of around 90% in the later period. However, this also makes the current inventory level of polyester factories higher than in previous years. In the context of strong raw material prices, there may be a need for replenishment of polyester downstream when work resumes. However, if the follow-up of terminal demand is not strong, after the polyester load continues to run at a high level, the inventory pressure of the polyester factory will If it increases, there will be the possibility of production cuts.
“Multiple sets of units are planned to be put into operation. The domestic supply pressure of ethylene glycol is relatively high in the long term. In addition, there will be a large amount of ethylene glycol arriving in Hong Kong in February, so the probability of supply exceeding demand is high. The accumulation of ethylene glycol is expected, and subsequent prices may It continues to be suppressed,” said Xie Wen, senior analyst at Wuchan Zhongda Futures.
Before the holiday, PTA supply increased and demand decreased, PX spot stock was tight, and PTA processing fees were compressed, which had a neutral impact on the market. The overall cost side of the PTA market dominated. Crude oil prices rose sharply again during the holiday, with PX (CFR Taiwan) exceeding US$1,000/ton, an increase of 5%. Boosted by the cost side, PTA jumped on the first day after the holiday, and finally rose by 6.24% that day. At present, the price of PTA is still dominated by the cost side. Therefore, the price of crude oil fell, and the price of PTA fell accordingly. On February 9, PTA fell by 2.2%.
Yan Dongliang, an energy researcher at Huarong Rongda Futures, told reporters that PTA is in sufficient supply and has accumulated inventory. Based on the currently announced plans for maintenance and restart of equipment, PTA output in February is estimated to be around 4.4 million tons. On the demand side, the polyester industry’s operating rate remains near 80%. After the Spring Festival, the polyester operating rate is expected to gradually pick up in late February. In terms of inventory, the supply of PTA is sufficient, and there is an expectation of accumulation of inventory.
As of February 8, the PTA operating rate was 82.46%. According to the maintenance plan of each device, about 4.5 million tons of production capacity will be involved in maintenance in the near future. It is expected that the PTA operating rate will decrease marginally. As of February 8, polyester production was at 85.12%. “Most downstream textile companies resume work from the eighth to the fifteenth day of the first lunar month, and it is expected that the polyester operating rate will increase marginally.” Xie Wen said.
Regarding the market outlook for PTA, Yan Dongliang believes that in the short term, the second phase of Yisheng New Materials’ PTA device has been put into operation, the output and supply have increased, and the supply and demand accumulation pressure has increased in February. After returning from the holiday, the liquidity of the spot market is relatively abundant, and the basis increase is limited, but the cost support is obvious, and PTA mainly follows the increase. Cost support is still high, but the fundamentals of supply and demand are weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the follow-up of demand in the later period.
“The industry corresponding to the PTA 2205 contract is not under much pressure to put into production. It is expected that the supply of PTA will decrease and the demand will increase. The overall accumulated inventory is limited, and the factors that dominate the market are still on the cost side.” Xie Wen said that at present, the correction of crude oil is only digesting the short-term negative effects. Factors have not substantially changed the pattern of crude oil destocking. There is a high probability that crude oil prices will remain strong in the first quarter, and the depth of the decline will be limited. Therefore, before the strong trend of crude oil prices reverses, PTA prices will be easy to rise but difficult to fall in the future, maintaining a neutral to bullish view.
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