In 2021, driven by factors such as vaccination and loose monetary policies in various countries, the global economy will recover at the bottom. However, affected by factors such as the continued evolution of the epidemic and the misalignment of market supply and demand cycles, the global economic recovery has shown the fluctuation characteristics of “a weak start in the first quarter, a strong recovery in the second quarter, a rebound in the third quarter, and a slight rebound in the fourth quarter.” According to the IMF, the full-year Global GDP will grow by 5.9%, and the two-year average growth rate is only 1.3%. Towards the end of the year, inflationary pressure that started in the United States continued to spread to the world. The weak demand situation was difficult to improve under the repeated impact of the epidemic, which had the effect of lowering development expectations for 2022. In December 2021, the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 54.2, which has been adjusting at around 54 since falling from a high in August; in January 2022, this index dropped to 53.2, which was 15 The new orders index fell more than the output index, indicating that the contraction on the demand side is more obvious than on the production side. In December 2021, the OECD leading index was 100.5, and it continued to maintain this value in January 2022. However, the consumer confidence index continued to fall from 99.5 to 99.1, remaining in the contraction range for eight consecutive months. The recovery pace of global merchandise trade has been hampered by supply-side risk factors such as the rebound of the epidemic, poor logistics, and shortages of key materials. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the world trade in goods index entered a contraction below the trend level. Commodity prices continue to be in an upward range, with the IMF commodity price index reaching 162.3 in 2021, an increase of 53.3% from 2020.
Figure 1: Trends in major macro indicators on the global supply side and demand side
Data sources: IHS Markit, WTO, OECD
In 2021, despite facing multiple pressures such as the spread of the domestic epidemic and the complex supply and demand situation in the international market, my country’s macro economy has continued to recover and develop, and its economic growth rate ranks among the highest in the world. Statistics show that my country’s gross domestic product (GDP) will reach 114.4 trillion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%. Taking 2019 as the base period (the same below), the two-year average growth is 5.1%; the country’s total retail sales of consumer goods, exports The total amount (USD value) and fixed asset investment completion (excluding farmers) increased by 12.5%, 29.9% and 4.9% respectively year-on-year, and the two-year average growth was 3.9%, 16% and 3.9% respectively. Among them, although the two-year average growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods has not yet returned to the pre-epidemic level, the final contribution rate of consumer spending to GDP growth reached 65.4%, ranking first among the “Troika”, indicating that the main role of the domestic general cycle is gradually Enhance. While the international supply chain is not functioning smoothly, the systematic advantages of my country’s manufacturing industry have been fully demonstrated. The total export volume of goods trade has achieved rapid growth. The contribution rate of net exports to GDP growth has reached 20.9%, which is significantly higher than the pre-epidemic level. Throughout the year, the industrial added value and total profit of enterprises above designated size increased by 9.6% and 34.3% respectively year-on-year, with an average growth of 5.8% and 18.2% respectively in the two years, indicating that the production and operation conditions of industrial enterprises are in a state of steady improvement.
Figure 2: my country’s GDP year-on-year growth rate
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics
Figure 3: Cumulative year-on-year growth rate of my country’s “Troika” indicators
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics, China Customs
Looking forward to 2022, the global economy is expected to continue on the track of recovery. my country’s seven major policy deployments of “stability takes top priority and progress while maintaining stability” provide guarantee for the national economy to achieve the goal of “steady growth”. However, the external situation facing the development of the textile industry Overall, the situation is still more severe than in 2021. The evolution of the epidemic will remain a key factor affecting the industry’s operating trends. At the same time, inflation has posed a challenge on a global scale. In response, monetary policies in various countries have tended to tighten, making the prospects for global economic recovery increasingly uncertain. Against this background, unstable income expectations, rising prices that weaken real purchasing power, and increased motivation to save will all lead to a weaker recovery in market demand. The market recovery situation with insufficient power, coupled with factors such as high commodity prices and the difficulty in fully restoring the international supply chain system, will make the macroeconomic situation in 2022 more complex, and the recovery differentiation characteristics among different types of economic entities and different links in the industrial chain will become more complex. obvious.
Thanks to the advantages of the industrial system and the overall improvement of the demand situation, my country’s textile industry has worked hard to overcome the impact of risks such as the spread of the epidemic, rising raw material prices, and poor international transportation capacity in 2021. The economic operation has shown a stable recovery trend, and the main operating indicators have all achieved The rebound rebounded, the gap in production, sales and efficiency caused by the epidemic was made up, and the export scale hit a record high. However, due to the main reason of the weakening of the base effect, the whole year’s operation showed a “high first and then low” trend. Entering 2022, textile companies have resumed normal work one after another after the Spring Festival. Although large-volume spring and summer orders have not yet been placed, companies have reported that the purchase and sales situation is better than expected before the holiday. At the same time, it has also emerged that companies in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain are less active than upstream companies in starting work. The situation of the enterprise reflects the relative market demand to a certain extent.��Weaker. It is expected that as the low base factors caused by the epidemic are eliminated, the economic operation of the textile industry in 2022 will return to the normal recovery track from the restorative growth stage in 2021, and the main economic indicators will enter the medium-low growth range.
</p
