As of February 24, the domestic PTA spot market price was 5,688 yuan/ton, which was 365 yuan/ton higher than the price on February 21 at the beginning of this week, an increase of +6.86%. In the short term, due to the escalating situation between Russia and Ukraine, the price of European and American crude oil futures rose by more than 6% during the session on February 24. The Brent spot contract was now trading at US$103.09/barrel, an increase of 6.45%, which greatly boosted the PTA market. The PTA price on that day It rose by 258 yuan/ton, or +4.75%.
From the upstream cost side, although the short-term crude oil market has been restrained by the United States’ consideration of releasing strategic reserves again and the smooth progress of the Iran issue, the situation in Russia and Ukraine continues to deteriorate. Ukraine’s military infrastructure has been attacked by the Russian military’s high-precision weapons. Entering a wartime state, the Russia-Ukraine war officially started and the global financial market was shaken. The price of crude oil futures soared 6% during the session. The price of WTI crude oil rose to around US$97/barrel, while the price of Brent exceeded US$103/barrel, continuing to rise in 2014. The price high since September has significantly increased the price of PTA. From the perspective of direct raw material PX, the Asian PX market has followed the upward trend of crude oil. The real-time quotation price has increased sharply by US$100/ton, and the delivery price has increased by nearly US$40/ton. As of 2:00 pm on February 24, Asian PX CFR Taiwan/China The real-time price in mainland China is US$1,118/ton, equivalent to a PTA cost of 5,308 yuan/ton. Therefore, the PTA processing fee has improved from 250 yuan/ton to about 387 yuan/ton, which shows that the cost-end boost is strong.
From the perspective of PTA’s own supply, the short-term load of the new 3.6 million-ton unit of Yisheng New Materials 2 has been increased to 80%. The device will discharge materials on February 3 and will maintain 50% operation in the early stage; Yisheng Lian 1# 2.25 million-ton unit 2 On February 21, the load was reduced to 50%, and maintenance began on February 24. The overall supply of PTA is still at a low level due to low initial processing fees. Recently, Yizheng Chemical Fiber 1#350,000 tons, Yangzi Petrochemical 650,000 tons, Zhuhai BP 1.25 million tons, and Hengli 4#2.5 million tons have all announced plans for maintenance in March. plan.
From the perspective of downstream demand, the short-term polyester production capacity is still running at around 90%, and the demand for PTA is mostly maintained. However, due to the poor order situation at the terminal, the market demand has not improved significantly. The terminal production capacity is low, and polyester procurement is relatively average. It drags down the overall transmission of the PTA industry chain.
Overall, the surge in cost-end crude oil has led to a sharp rise in the PTA market, and PTA’s own supply has also provided some support, but weak downstream demand is still negative for market sentiment. From the perspective of the market outlook, there is a high probability that crude oil will run strongly, which will boost PTA prices higher. PTA’s fundamental performance is acceptable, and the downstream seasonal peak season is coming. With optimistic expectations for market demand, PTA prices are expected to still rise. . It is necessary to pay attention to the trend of international oil prices, the maintenance situation of PTA equipment and the situation of downstream demand.
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