Affected by the unstable situation in Russia and Ukraine, oil prices have fluctuated violently recently and have generally shown an upward trend. However, the increase in downstream chemical products is not as much as that of crude oil. The same is true for the polyester raw materials and polyester markets. Processing fees have been frequently under pressure, and downstream demand has been slow to emerge. improvement. Due to heavy cost pressure and weak supply and demand, the polyester market still faced major difficulties in March.
The device is still being uploaded
The supply of polyester filament in March will be a record high
The output of polyester filament in February was 2.261 million tons, down 9.72% month-on-month and up 19.2% year-on-year. It is expected that the output growth will continue to increase in March and may reach 21%. Although an 80,000-ton cationic device in Jiangsu Lixin has recently been overhauled, Most of the parking devices have been restarted before the Spring Festival, and devices such as Ningbo Quandi and Jinsheng are still increasing their load. In addition, the new production capacity of Xinfengming Dushan Energy is also gradually producing yarn. Generally speaking, the supply of polyester filament in March It will be a record high.
Customers who are in urgent need focus on replenishing their positions
Polyester filament inventory may be difficult to significantly improve
The inventory of polyester filament is already at a relatively high level. When international crude oil surged last week, factories concentrated on large-scale shipments. Some of the better shipments were shipped within 5-7 days. They were only for customers who needed it to replenish their positions. If the demand continues to be poor, , polyester filament inventory may not be significantly improved, and rigid shipments are the main focus.
Not enough new orders
Gray cloth profits are hard to say optimistic about
Judging from the downstream start-up situation, water-jet and air-jet looms are currently performing well, but the mainstream market still shows a lack of new orders, squeezed profits, and poor enthusiasm for starting operations. Market participants are looking forward to the start of foreign trade orders in mid-March, but gray fabric profits are hardly optimistic. Coupled with the recent continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the expectation of a U.S. interest rate hike in March, export orders may be affected to a certain extent.
Looking forward, cost support is expected to remain strong, but the unstable geopolitical situation has also intensified subsequent fluctuations. The risk of unilateral market operations has intensified in March, and industry players still need to be cautious. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, although terminal demand is recovering slowly, raw material inventories are low near the traditional peak season, which provides certain rigid support to the market. Therefore, there should be some support in the short-term market, and absolute prices are expected to rise. However, long-term high operating rates The hidden worries about excess still exist, the superimposed terminal orders have not yet improved, and the market lacks substantial positive drivers.
Under the current situation of high supply, weak demand and high inventory, polyester filament relies more on cost support in March. However, the current raw material market is confusing. After a period of continuous rise in upstream crude oil and other raw material products, both technically and There are psychological adjustment requirements, especially in the context of geopolitical tensions that are bound to break up and break up over time. Once the situation eases and international oil prices fluctuate, the entire petrochemical industry chain product market will “cool down” simultaneously; downstream demand is It cannot continue to expand in a short period of time, which will put corresponding pressure on the upside of the polyester market. However, considering that the increase in the cost of polyester raw materials in March is inevitable, the price of polyester filament will still be supported higher. Based on the existence of the above two reasons, the editor believes that without the support of quantity and energy in the short term, even if polyester filament prices rise, the space will be limited.
</p
