The escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine continues to have an impact on international crude oil prices. On the 7th, US and Brent crude oil futures opened sharply. Brent crude oil once rose by US$20/barrel, reaching a maximum of US$138.02/barrel, setting a new high since 2008 due to the risk of a Russian oil embargo and the delay of Iran’s nuclear negotiations.
International oil prices are approaching US$140 per barrel, mainly due to the turmoil in important oil-producing countries. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase said that if Russia’s supply continues to be blocked, Brent crude oil may reach US$185 per barrel by the end of the year. After the conflict between Ukraine and Russia escalated, the European and American camps continued to increase sanctions on Russia, and sanctions in the energy field were also launched. So far, dozens of oil companies, including BP, Shell, Exxon Mobil, etc., have stopped their operations in Russia or announced plans to abandon their Russian operations.
Agency analysis shows that although sanctions have not yet targeted Russia’s energy sector, many private energy companies have begun to “cut off” their shares one after another under multiple pressures. This means that Russian crude oil exports may face Western restrictions, and market inventories are at low levels. Next, the shortage of crude oil will further increase.
skyrocketing energy prices
Explosive chemical companies
The two oils have reached US$120 per barrel, and natural gas has also risen for many consecutive days. Since the beginning of this year, WTI crude oil prices have increased by more than 40%, and Dutch TTF natural gas futures have increased by more than 55%. This has undoubtedly increased people’s anxiety about the energy crisis.
The domestic futures market exploded, and crude oil prices rose across the board. Shanghai crude oil futures closed their daily limit, rising 10.99% to 719.9 yuan/barrel, setting a new high since listing. Low-sulfur fuel rose by 9.38%; fuel oil and LPG rose by more than 6%; PTA rose by 4.31%; ethylene glycol and staple fibers rose by more than 3%; styrene and asphalt rose by more than 2%; methanol and soda ash rose by more than 1.5%. For a time, many chemical fiber people’s friend circles became extremely lively, and everyone said that the market and people had to go “crazy” first…
The situation is turbulent, the chemical market is extremely unstable, and the industry is facing huge challenges.
Taken together, on the one hand, it is due to insufficient supply, and on the other hand, transportation is blocked. Companies in Shandong, Hebei, Henan and other places said years ago that they had received notices that they would arrange shutdowns in early February and March. In February The situation has fully proved that the price increase caused by supply shortage is vigorous.
It is not difficult to predict that with crude oil soaring and natural gas soaring, the chemical industry market will repeat the same mistakes in March, with supply shortages and price increases once again.
The price increase of polyester yarn is extremely inconsistent with the raw materials
I can’t control the downstream: it’s rising!
As flour becomes more expensive, the price of bread will naturally increase as well. The rise in crude oil will inevitably have an impact on the polyester industry chain. This sudden retaliatory rise in crude oil has triggered a rise in the polyester market.
As the most direct raw material for polyester filament, the rebound in the PTA and ethylene glycol markets has always been able to bring certain stimulation to the production and sales of polyester filament. In the recent period, polyester raw materials have experienced a large increase, and the upstream polyester raw material market has performed strongly. A shot in the arm for polyester! At the same time, market suppliers are currently raising prices. From a cost perspective, the current price increase of polyester yarn obviously does not match the upstream raw materials, which will definitely boost the polyester market price in the short term.
Secondly, let’s look at the downstream demand situation. Whether the polyester filament market can start the “price increase” mode, demand must be the top priority. There is no doubt that since February, although the terminal order situation is still not ideal, weaving companies have still been able to maintain a level of about 70%, and the downstream demand for polyester yarn is still acceptable. At the same time, after experiencing a long period of rising costs in the early stage, downstream weaving manufacturers have more or less a mentality of buying up rather than buying down, and there is also a need for replenishment.
In the face of severe market tests, many textile workers have already felt the pressure of the industry. Product prices change every day, and the market prices rise and fall with uncertainty. Many textile people say that “lying flat” is the response.
However, whether it is the withdrawal of oil giants, the force majeure of chemical industry leaders, the increasing cost of transportation, or the artificial sales control in the domestic market, they have all combined to push the chemical market to continue to rise and it is difficult to fall back. And based on the current situation, Look, it seems that geopolitical conflicts are still escalating. It is difficult to see a “ceiling” in the trend of oil prices, and it is difficult to quickly reverse the high price of the industrial chain. If the market outlookSales can continue to rise, alleviating the inventory pressure on polyester filament manufacturers, and the “price increase” of polyester filament will be smooth!
</p
