The General Administration of Customs announced on March 7 that according to customs statistics, in the first two months of this year, my country’s total import and export value was 6.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.3% over the same period last year (the same below). In US dollars, my country’s total import and export value in the first two months was US$973.45 billion, an increase of 15.9%.
Experts said that against the background of a high base in the same period of 2021, my country’s foreign trade continued to maintain steady growth in the first two months of this year, which reflects the resilience of my country’s foreign trade and will help promote the current macroeconomic operation within a reasonable range.
Export growth is expected to remain at double digits
In terms of exports, from January to February, my country’s exports increased by 13.6% in RMB terms; in US dollars, my country’s exports increased by 16.3%.
Data source: General Administration of Customs, drawing: reporter Zhao Baizhinan
In terms of products, exports of mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products both increased.
In the first two months, my country exported 2.02 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, an increase of 9.9%, accounting for 58.3% of the total export value. in:
Automatic data processing equipment and its parts were 250.76 billion yuan, an increase of 7.2%; mobile phones were 147.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.1%; household appliances were 89.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.9%.
During the same period, the export of labor-intensive products was 621.46 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9%, accounting for 17.9%. in:
Clothing and clothing accessories were 162.27 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7%. Textiles including masks were 157.7 billion yuan, an increase of 9.3%. Plastic products were 101.95 billion yuan, an increase of 12%.
As for the high export growth rate, Cheng Qiang, chief macro analyst at CITIC Securities, said that the main driving force for China’s export growth since last year has been the continued expansion of overseas demand and the recovery of the supply chain. At present, strong overseas demand is resilient, and the recovery of the global supply chain is a long and complex process, which is generally good for China’s exports.
“Multiple a priori indicators show that external demand is still strong.” Xie Yaxuan, deputy general manager of the Strategic Research Department of China Merchants Securities Research and Development Center, said that South Korea’s exports increased by 15.2% year-on-year in January, and exports increased by 13.1% in the first 20 days of February, which also reflects strong global demand. The pattern continues.
Looking to the future, experts believe that there is still more support for export growth.
“It is expected that export growth in March will also face strong support, and there is a high probability that it will continue to record double-digit growth.” Zheng Houcheng, director of the Yingda Securities Research Institute, believes that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to a sharp rise in commodity prices, led by crude oil. The price perspective will form a strong support for my country’s export growth; however, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will be negative for the global economy and will be negative for my country’s export growth from a quantitative perspective. From a base point of view, the base number for the same period in 2021 will decline, which will be positive for the year-on-year growth rate of exports in March.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, believes that since this year, factors such as the epidemic and global inflation have made our country’s economy still face greater external uncertainty, and risk challenges will increase significantly. Therefore, it is still necessary to take effective measures to continue to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, especially to continue to increase support for small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises to ensure the stable production and operation of small and medium-sized enterprises.
Import demand is supported
In terms of imports, from January to February, my country’s imports increased by 12.9% in RMB terms; in US dollars, my country’s imports increased by 15.5%.
Data source: General Administration of Customs, drawing: reporter Zhao Baizhinan
In terms of products, my country’s iron ore import volume was basically flat and prices fell in the first two months; import volumes of crude oil, coal, and natural gas increased at reduced prices; import volumes and prices of soybeans, refined oil, etc. both increased. in:
Iron ore was 181 million tons, basically the same as the same period last year; the average import price was 666.9 yuan per ton, down 36%; crude oil was 85.138 million tons, down 4.9%; the average import price was 3792.1 yuan per ton, up 47.1%; coal was 35.391 million tons , a decrease of 14%; the average import price was 1,056.5 yuan per ton, an increase of 151.6%; natural gas was 19.858 million tons, a decrease of 3.8%; the average import price was 4,234.3 yuan per ton, an increase of 84.5%; soybeans were 13.942 million tons, an increase of 4.1%; the average import price 3,818.3 yuan per ton, an increase of 24.6%; refined oil products were 4.641 million tons, an increase of 16.6%; the average import price was 4,566.4 yuan per ton, an increase of 35.9%.
Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst at Huachuang Securities, said that the manufacturing new orders index returned to the expansion range in February, and the imported dry bulk freight price index also bottomed out in February, both pointing to improvements in corporate production to support import demand.
Xie Yaxuan said that from the perspective of marginal factors affecting imports, commodity prices are still relatively high. However, due to the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, commodity prices are expected to show a downward trend. Price declines will help reduce midstream and downstream costs, and further Conducive to demand recovery.
</p
